Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies Prediction For 5/18/2024

Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 18, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • MacKenzie Gore - Nationals
  • Cristopher Sanchez - Phillies

Betting Odds

Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

On May 18, 2024, the Philadelphia Phillies will host the Washington Nationals at Citizens Bank Park in a National League East matchup. The Phillies, with a record of 32-14, are having a great season, while the Nationals, with a record of 20-23, are having a below-average season.

The Phillies are projected to start left-handed pitcher Cristopher Sanchez, who has been performing well this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Sanchez is ranked as the #46 best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers. He has started 8 games this year, with a win/loss record of 2-3 and an ERA of 3.43. However, his peripheral indicators suggest that he may regress going forward, as his xERA is higher than his ERA, indicating some luck in his performance.

The Nationals are projected to start left-handed pitcher MacKenzie Gore. Gore is ranked as the #54 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our Power Rankings. He has started 8 games this year, with a win/loss record of 2-4 and an ERA of 3.38. His peripheral indicators suggest that he may improve going forward, as his FIP is lower than his ERA, indicating some bad luck in his performance.

The Phillies have a strong offense, ranking as the #4 best in MLB this season. They have been performing well in team batting average and stolen bases, ranking #8 and #10 respectively. On the other hand, the Nationals have struggled offensively, ranking as the #25 best team in MLB. They have struggled with home runs, ranking #29 in the league.

Based on the current odds, the Phillies are the favorites to win with a moneyline of -175 and an implied win probability of 62%. The Nationals are the underdogs with a moneyline of +155 and an implied win probability of 38%.

Considering the pitching matchup and the offensive rankings, the Phillies have the advantage in this game. However, baseball is unpredictable, and anything can happen on the field. The game total is set at 7.5 runs, indicating a potentially low-scoring game.

Overall, the Phillies have been performing well this season, and with their strong offense and bullpen, they have a good chance of securing a victory against the struggling Nationals. However, baseball is a game of surprises, and the Nationals will be looking to defy the odds and pull off an upset.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

MacKenzie Gore's fastball velocity has jumped 1.6 mph this year (96 mph) over where it was last year (94.4 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.

Ildemaro Vargas is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 76% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Riley Adams (the Nationals's expected catcher in today's matchup) profiles as a horrible pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Given that flyball pitchers hold a notable edge over flyball hitters, Cristopher Sanchez and his 53.5% underlying FB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a good position in this matchup being matched up with 3 opposing FB hitters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Washington Nationals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Bryce Harper has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies' bullpen ranks as the 3rd-best out of all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 25 of their last 30 games (+19.60 Units / 54% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 40 games (+8.38 Units / 19% ROI)
• Alec Bohm has hit the RBIs Over in 21 of his last 37 games (+16.30 Units / 44% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: Washington Nationals 3.21 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.26

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