Washington Nationals at Milwaukee Brewers Pick For 7/13/2024

Washington Nationals vs Milwaukee Brewers Details

• Date: July 13, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mitchell Parker - Nationals
  • Dallas Keuchel - Brewers

Betting Odds

Washington Nationals vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Washington Nationals vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

As the Milwaukee Brewers prepare to host the Washington Nationals on July 13, 2024, at American Family Field, both teams find themselves on different trajectories this season. The Brewers, with a 54-41 record, are enjoying a strong season, while the Nationals, sitting at 43-52, are having a below-average year. This National League matchup will be the second game in their series, with the Brewers looking to capitalize on their home-field advantage.

Milwaukee's offense has been impressive, ranking 8th in MLB overall, 4th in team batting average, and 2nd in stolen bases. However, their power numbers lag behind, as they are 20th in home runs. On the other side, Washington's offense has struggled, ranking 24th overall and 29th in home runs, though they do rank 3rd in stolen bases. This disparity in offensive firepower could be a decisive factor in the game.

The Brewers will send Dallas Keuchel to the mound. Despite an ERA of 4.61###101, Keuchel's underlying metrics, such as his 5.33 xFIP, suggest he's been somewhat fortunate this season. He ranks as the 302nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. Keuchel has struggled with allowing hits and walks, projecting to give up 5.6 hits and 1.5 walks over an average of 5.3 innings pitched.

The Nationals counter with Mitchell Parker, who has a solid 3.44 ERA but a 3.98 xFIP, indicating some luck as well. Parker's 5-5 record over 16 starts reflects his inconsistency. He projects to pitch 4.7 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs, 5.0 hits, and 1.9 walks. Parker's control could be a key factor, as he faces a Brewers lineup known for drawing walks, ranking 3rd in MLB in that category.

Both bullpens have their issues, with Milwaukee's ranked 20th and Washington's 28th in the Power Rankings. This could lead to a high-scoring affair, as indicated by the game total set at 9.0 runs.

Betting markets have the Brewers as slight favorites with a moneyline of -130, giving them an implied win probability of 54%. The Nationals are at +110, with an implied win probability of 46%. Given Milwaukee's stronger overall season and home-field advantage, they appear to have the edge in this matchup.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Tallying 17.2 outs per outing this year on average, Mitchell Parker falls in the 81st percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Luis Garcia has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (66% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

In today's game, CJ Abrams is at a disadvantage facing the league's 7th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 34.1% rate (81st percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Dallas Keuchel has had some very poor luck with his ERA since the start of last season; his 5.61 figure is significantly inflated relative to his 5.03 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher has the most control over).

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

The Washington Nationals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Christian Yelich has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

It may be wise to expect worse results for the Milwaukee Brewers offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 3rd-luckiest offense in the game this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Run Line in 20 of their last 33 games at home (+10.45 Units / 27% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 53 of their last 94 games (+6.88 Units / 6% ROI)
• Lane Thomas has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+10.35 Units / 86% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Final Score: Washington Nationals 4.24 vs Milwaukee Brewers 5.16

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.