Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks Best Bet – 7/30/2024

Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks Details

• Date: July 30, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Patrick Corbin - Nationals
  • Ryne Nelson - D-Backs

Betting Odds

Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

The Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Washington Nationals on July 30, 2024, at Chase Field in what is shaping up to be an intriguing National League matchup. The Diamondbacks, with a 55-51 record, are having an above-average season and are currently in the hunt for a playoff spot. On the other hand, the Nationals, sitting at 49-57, are struggling to stay competitive this year.

Yesterday, the two teams faced off in the first game of their series, with the Diamondbacks coming out on top. Arizona will look to continue their momentum as they send right-hander Ryne Nelson to the mound. Nelson, despite being ranked #189 among starting pitchers in MLB, has shown signs of potential bad luck this season. His 4.85 ERA is somewhat misleading, as his 3.90 FIP suggests he has pitched better than his surface stats indicate. Nelson has a 7-6 record in 19 starts and will aim to capitalize on a favorable matchup against a weak Nationals offense.

Washington will counter with Patrick Corbin, a lefty who has had a rough year with a 2-10 record and a 5.26 ERA. Corbin's 4.24 xFIP suggests he has also been somewhat unlucky, but the Nationals' bullpen, ranked 29th in MLB, could pose a problem if he doesn't go deep into the game. Corbin is projected to pitch 5.1 innings, allowing 3.5 earned runs on average, which is not a promising outlook against a solid Diamondbacks lineup.

Arizona's offense ranks 8th in MLB this season and has been particularly strong in batting average, sitting at 7th. Ketel Marte has been on fire recently, hitting .429 with a 1.617 OPS over the last week. The Diamondbacks' ability to produce runs should give them a significant edge, especially against a struggling Nationals pitching staff.

Washington's offense has been lackluster, ranking 25th in MLB. They have managed to be effective on the basepaths, ranking 3rd in stolen bases, but their power numbers are near the bottom, ranking 29th in home runs. Juan Yepez has been a bright spot recently, hitting .348 with a .955 OPS over the last week, but he'll need more support from his teammates to keep up with Arizona's potent lineup.

With the Diamondbacks as big betting favorites and a moneyline of -180, the implied win probability sits at 62%. Given their strong offensive performance and the struggles of the Nationals' pitching staff, Arizona seems poised to secure another win and continue their push for a postseason spot.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Patrick Corbin's 90.9-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 12th percentile among all starting pitchers.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Keibert Ruiz is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 64% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The 2nd-worst projected offense of all teams on the slate in terms of overall hitting skill is that of the the Washington Nationals.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Ryne Nelson has a mean projection of 17.3 outs in this matchup, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Ketel Marte has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 99.2-mph average over the last week to his seasonal 93.6-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks' bullpen ranks as the 7th-best among all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 54 games (+12.85 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 55 of their last 96 games (+9.50 Units / 8% ROI)
• Corbin Carroll has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 14 games (+20.40 Units / 146% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Final Score: Washington Nationals 4.36 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 5.73

Stay informed with the most recent MLB news and our analytics-driven MLB picks and predictions all season long.