Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners Pick – 5/10/2025

As the Seattle Mariners prepare to host the Toronto Blue Jays on May 10, 2025, both teams are looking to gain momentum in this critical series. The Mariners currently sit at 22-15, enjoying a solid season, while the Blue Jays are struggling with an 18-20 record. This game marks the second matchup in the series, with Seattle dropping the first game, and they’ll look to capitalize on their home-field advantage at T-Mobile Park to get back into the win column.

Logan Evans is projected to take the mound for the Mariners, bringing a mixed bag of performance this season. Although he carries an unsightly 7.20 ERA, advanced projections indicate he may be due for a turnaround, as his 4.69 xFIP suggests he’s faced some bad luck. He’ll face Bowden Francis, whose own struggles are evident with a 5.66 ERA and a reputation as one of the least effective pitchers in the league. Francis has a high flyball rate of 40%, which could spell trouble against a powerful Mariners lineup that ranks 4th in MLB in home runs.

Seattle's offense is currently firing on all cylinders, ranking 5th in the league overall, making it a tough task for Francis to navigate the lineup. Contrarily, the Blue Jays' offense is struggling, sitting 24th overall, and they may find it challenging to capitalize on Evans’ low strikeout rate against a team that doesn’t strike out often.

With the Mariners projected to score 4.14 runs and the Blue Jays at 3.86, betting lines indicate a closely contested game. Seattle's solid bullpen, ranked 15th, adds further confidence as they seek to build on their recent success.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Bowden Francis has utilized his four-seam fastball 7.5% more often this season (56.7%) than he did last year (49.2%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Addison Barger has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 9.1% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% over the last 7 days.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen profiles as the 4th-best in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

The Seattle Mariners infield defense projects as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Randy Arozarena has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 97.7-mph average to last year's 94.2-mph EV.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Cal Raleigh pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.4% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 25 games (+12.25 Units / 45% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Run Line in 23 of their last 38 games (+5.60 Units / 10% ROI)
• Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.50 Units / 54% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.15, Seattle Mariners 4.27

• Date: May 10, 2025
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bowden Francis - Blue Jays
  • Logan Evans - Mariners

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