The Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees will meet in Game 4 of the American League Division Series on Wednesday night. After New York clawed back from a 6-1 deficit to win Game 3, they remain alive in this series, and now host Game 4 at Yankee Stadium as favorites to force a Game 5. Before the first pitch from the Bronx tonight, continue reading to get my Blue Jays vs Yankees Game 4 prediction.
Our Blue Jays vs Yankees Game 4 Pick
- Pick: Over 8.5
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees
- Date & Time: Wednesday, October 8, 2025, 7:08 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Cam Schlittler (NY) vs Louis Varland (TOR)
- Stadium: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
- Broadcast: FS1
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
The Yankees will hand the ball to rookie Cam Schlittler, who posted a 4-3 record and a 2.96 ERA in the regular season. Schlittler was dominant in his first career playoff start, throwing eight shutout innings and striking out 12 in Game 3 of the Wild Card round against the Boston Red Sox.
Toronto is going with Louis Varland in a bullpen day after burning through relievers in Game 3. Varland went 4-3 with a 2.97 ERA in the regular season, though this is an unorthodox use of him in a starter role this postseason. Varland took the loss in Game 3 of this series and will try to bounce back just a day later.
Key Players
- Aaron Judge (NYY): He delivered a clutch three-run homer in Game 3 and has shown that in the postseason, he can be a game-changer.
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR): Guerrero has lit up the Yankees in this series so far and will try to keep his team from having to go back home for a Game 5.
- Yankees bullpen: After shutting Toronto down in Game 3 following Rodón’s early exit, New York’s relievers will have confidence entering another must-win game.
- Toronto’s bullpen depth: The Jays’ bullpen is already stretched thin. They will be under the microscope in this game, especially in later innings if Schlittler holds Toronto’s offense in check.
Recent team streaks
The Yankees snapped a two-game losing streak with their win at home on Tuesday. They are 3-3 in the postseason so far. Toronto dropped to 2-1 in this year’s playoffs with their loss on Tuesday night.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop Type | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | Home Runs | Over 0.5 |
| Cam Schlittler | Strikeouts | Over 4.5 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | Total Bases | Over 1.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- Toronto is 10-6 against the Yankees between the regular season and postseason.
- All three games in this series have gone over their totals, with over 10 total runs scored in each of the first three games.
Blue Jays vs Yankees Game 4 Model Projection
Score Projection: Yankees 7 – Blue Jays 5
Win Probability: Yankees 56%, Blue Jays 44%
Final Thoughts
The Yankees should have the advantage at home in Game 4 of this series. But instead of playing a side, I think going back to the well with the over in this game is the way to go. Both teams have had success offensively at different points in this series and I expect the Jays and Yankees to combined to score 10 runs or more for a fourth straight game in the ALDS.
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