We’ve seen a sizable line move in this AL East matchup between the Toronto Blue Jays and the Baltimore Orioles. We’ve actually seen two of them. The Orioles have taken the influential money to drive this opening number down a good bit. We’ve also seen the total jump from 10 to as high as 11 in the markets.
Something is not right with Hyun-jin Ryu. The market is on the Orioles today with a big move down in this game as a result. I don’t see anything with the spin rates for Ryu that stands out, but he has a 5.35 ERA with a 6.31 FIP in his last 35.1 innings of work. He’s allowed an average exit velocity of 91.8 mph in those six starts and has allowed eight home runs.
Ryu has allowed 12 barrels in his last six starts and 60 hard-hit balls, so 60 of his 120 batted balls have been hit at least 95 mph. For reference, Ryu allowed six barrels all of last season. He’s already going to set a career high. He allowed 25 barrels in 2017, so he’s going to fly past that number this season. His Hard Hit% is up to 40.9%, easily his highest in a full season in the Statcast era. And by “easily”, I mean that he was at 29.2% last season, 30.8% in 2019, 28.8% in 2018, and 31.4% in 2017.
It must be an underlying injury, a major mechanical mishap, or something mental because Ryu is getting rocked right now. There aren’t a lot of things that the Orioles are good at, but hitting against lefties is one of them.
It is entirely possible that a guy with Ryu’s talent and track record can flip the switch and figure it out, but he is not locating well at all right now. The Orioles are fourth in wOBA at .332 and have a 110 wRC+ that also ranks fourth when it comes to hitting lefties. Baltimore’s 21.9% K% is the sixth-lowest mark, so they give themselves a lot of chances to do damage.
The Blue Jays should have a lot of chances to do damage here as well. They draw Matt Harvey, who goes into this start with a 7.34 ERA and a 4.83 FIP. I guess we could call him a positive regression candidate, but regressing to one’s FIP means having at least some semblance of command. Harvey does not. He has a .349 BABIP against and has allowed 12 HR in 17 starts.
The Jays just saw Harvey twice and scored seven runs on 15 hits in 10 innings. It could have been more if they didn’t squander some opportunities and leave guys on base.
We could get some help on this total if necessary from the bullpens as well. The Orioles pen does grade well in fWAR and FIP, but has a 4.80 ERA and got off to a really good start that fizzled out in May and June. The Blue Jays pen has had plenty of problems as well.
This total has moved up, but I think there’s still value in it, as we’ve got a very hot, very humid night in Baltimore with a breeze helping out a little bit to left field.
Pick: Over 10.5
Other game: Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins