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Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview
The Toronto Blue Jays qualified for the MLB playoffs last season, finishing in one of the American League Wild Card spots. But they were taken out in the Wild Card round by the Minnesota Twins, in a disappointing end to their year. This season, the Jays will look not just to get back to the postseason, but to finish at the top of the AL East en route to a championship.
Despite getting to the postseason last year, the Jays were surprisingly inept offensively compared to the rest of their division. The young core of their lineup did not deliver in a meaningful way, while an injury to Bo Bichette certainly did not help them in the second half of the season. The key to this year will be whether or not the Jays can step things up offensively once again.
2024 Blue Jays Season Win Total Odds
Toronto Blue Jays Futures Betting Odds
Standings Data
| 2023 | |
|---|---|
| Actual Record | 89-73 |
| Run Differential | +75 |
| Pythagorean W/L | 89-73 |
| BaseRuns Record | 87-75 |
| BaseRuns Run Differential | +2 |
Toronto Blue Jays Predictions, Betting Picks & News
Offseason Transactions
Key Additions: Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Justin Turner, Kevin Kiermaier
Key Departures: Matt Chapman, Brandon Belt, Whit Merrifield, Hyun Jin Ryu
Toronto both gained and lost some talent this past offseason, but did not appear to make any moves that would materially change their future for the better on aggregate. IKF, Turner, and Kiermaier are by no means bad players, but they are also not the caliber of player needed to bring this team closer to the 100-win mark that might be required to win the AL East this season.
Offensive Stats
| 2023 (Rank) | 2022 (Rank) | |
|---|---|---|
| Batting Average (BA) | .256 (T-8th) | .264 (1st) |
| On-Base Percentage (OBP) | .329 (T-7th) | .329 (3rd) |
| Slugging Percentage (SLG) | .417 (13th) | .431 (3rd) |
| Weighted On-Base Avg (wOBA) | .324 (T-10th) | .331 (2nd) |
| Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) | 107 (T-7th) | 118 (2nd) |
| Batting Avg on Balls In Play (BABIP) | .301 (T-12th) | .305 (3rd) |
| Strikeout Percentage (K%) | 20.9% (6th) | 20.2% (5th) |
| Walk Percentage (BB%) | 8.8% (T-12th) | 8.1% (T-14th) |
Toronto took a big step back offensively last season after leading the league in batting average the year before. The Jays were an elite offense in 2022 thanks to big years from players like Vlad Guerrero Jr. But Guerrero took a step back last season, while Bo Bichette did not play for much of the year after he suffered an injury despite leading the league in hits for a good chunk of the season. Bichette’s return and production will go a long way toward determining how this season goes for the Jays offensively.
Pitching Stats
| 2023 (Rank) | 2022 (Rank) | |
|---|---|---|
| Earned Run Average (ERA) | 3.79 (4th) | 3.89 (15th) |
| Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) | 4.06 (7th) | 3.85 (12th) |
| Adj. Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) | 4.03 (6th) | 3.84 (12th) |
| Strikeout Percentage (K%) | 25.1% (T-2nd) | 23.0% (14th) |
| Walk Percentage (BB%) | 8.0% (9th) | 7.0% (3th) |
| Left On Base Percentage (LOB%) | 75.4% (2nd) | 73.4% (13th) |
Toronto’s pitching was its biggest strength this past year, thanks in large part to the work of Kevin Gausman. Gausman was a legitimate Cy Young contender in the American League for much of last season and he will be expected to help the Jays rotation remain a productive one this season. But any steps backward from Gausman could mean major issues for the Jays as a whole in 2024.
Positives & Negatives
Despite their reputation for being a dangerous offensive team, the biggest strength of the Jays is their pitching staff. Gausman figures to be a Cy Young contender again this season, while any sort of improvement from Alek Manoah could mean a truly dominant group of starters in the future. Either way, the Jays should hang plenty of zeroes this season.
The biggest negative for the Jays would be their lack of consistency, which plagued them at the plate a season ago. Guerrero was top-40 in the league in both home runs and RBI, but he needs to be closer to the top-20 if he is going to help the Jays be more than Wild Card fodder. He and the rest of the Jays lineup will need to be more consistent to get to where they want to be.
Toronto Blue Jays Win Total Pick & Prediction: Under 86.5
Right now, we don’t see much reason to believe in the Blue Jays as more than a team that will be around the Wild Card slots in the American League. Their hitters are enigmatic, while their pitching is in a precarious position if Gausman does not have another truly elite season. We will take the under on the Blue Jays season win total, in a year where we expect the Yankees to get better and provide more competition in the AL East.
