Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles Prediction For 7/30/2024

Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles Details

• Date: July 30, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Bassitt - Blue Jays
  • Corbin Burnes - Orioles

Betting Odds

Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

As we approach July 30, 2024, the Baltimore Orioles are set to host the Toronto Blue Jays at Oriole Park at Camden Yards for the third game of this American League East series. The Orioles, who currently boast a 63-44 record, are having a stellar season and look poised to solidify their playoff position. In contrast, the Blue Jays are enduring a below-average season with a 50-57 record, making this matchup all the more critical for them as they try to turn things around.

Baltimore's ace, Corbin Burnes, will take the mound with a strong 10-4 record and an impressive 2.45 ERA this season. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Burnes is ranked as the 25th best starting pitcher in the league, highlighting his elite status. However, his 3.41 xFIP suggests that he might have been a bit fortunate, indicating potential regression ahead. Burnes is projected to pitch around 5.8 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs, striking out 5 batters, while giving up 5.2 hits and 1.5 walks.

Opposite Burnes, Toronto’s Chris Bassitt brings an 8-9 record with a 3.78 ERA. Ranked 67th among MLB starters, Bassitt has been above average but also shows signs of luck with a 4.30 SIERA. He is projected to pitch 5.5 innings, allowing 3.1 earned runs, and striking out 5.1 batters, while conceding 5.8 hits and 1.8 walks.

The Orioles' offense, ranked 3rd in the league, has been a powerhouse, leading MLB in home runs and ranking 7th in team batting average. They will look to capitalize on Bassitt’s shaky projections. Cedric Mullins has been a standout recently, hitting .333 with a 1.178 OPS over the last week.

On the other side, the Blue Jays' offense has languished at 19th in MLB, struggling particularly with power, ranking 27th in home runs. However, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been red-hot, batting .500 with a 1.608 OPS and 4 home runs in the past week, providing a bright spot for Toronto.

Baltimore's bullpen ranks 21st, while Toronto's bullpen is 25th, potentially leading to late-game opportunities for either offense. With the Orioles as big betting favorites, the game total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating a balanced potential for scoring. The Orioles' implied team total stands at a high 4.90 runs, reflecting their strong season and home-field advantage.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Chris Bassitt has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying 6.9 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average hurler.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Alejandro Kirk has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (94% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Daulton Varsho pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.9% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Corbin Burnes's cutter percentage has decreased by 11% from last season to this one (55.4% to 44.4%) .

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Anthony Santander has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 98.5-mph average over the last week to his seasonal 90-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Baltimore Orioles projected lineup profiles as the 3rd-strongest of all teams today in terms of overall hitting skill.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 53 of their last 102 games (+11.30 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 53 games (+18.40 Units / 31% ROI)
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 21 of his last 32 games (+7.90 Units / 19% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.25 vs Baltimore Orioles 5.05

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