Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners Pick – 4/11/2025

Texas Rangers vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

On April 11, 2025, the Seattle Mariners will host the Texas Rangers at T-Mobile Park in what marks the first game of their series. The Mariners are struggling with a record of 5-8, having been unable to find their rhythm this season. Meanwhile, the Rangers are in much better shape with a solid 9-4 record. The last time both teams met, the Rangers showcased their strength, securing a decisive victory.

Seattle's Bryce Miller is set to take the mound, looking to improve on his 0-2 record and 5.73 ERA this season. Despite his struggles, the projections indicate he might have been unlucky, suggesting a possible turnaround. However, the Mariners' offense, currently ranked 21st in MLB, has had trouble generating runs consistently, especially given their 29th ranking in team batting average.

In contrast, Texas will counter with the elite Jacob deGrom, who boasts a solid 3.38 ERA and ranks 13th among starting pitchers according to advanced Power Rankings. DeGrom is not only known for his ability to generate strikeouts—projected at 7.6 strikeouts today—but also for limiting walks, which could neutralize the Mariners’ patience at the plate. With the Rangers ranked 24th in overall offensive performance, their power lies in their ability to hit home runs, coming in at 10th in that category this season.

Given the close odds, with the Mariners at +110 and the Rangers at -130, this game is expected to be competitive. Sports bettors should watch how Miller, a high-walk pitcher, fares against a Rangers offense that tends not to take many walks, potentially giving him an advantage. However, deGrom’s elite stuff could make it a challenging outing for Seattle’s batters, projecting a low-scoring affair with a Game Total of only 6.5 runs.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Because groundball pitchers have a significant edge over groundball bats, Jacob deGrom and his 38.9% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a strong spot in today's matchup being matched up with 3 opposing GB bats.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Joc Pederson stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Texas Rangers hitters as a unit have been one of the worst in the league since the start of last season ( 10th-worst) as far as their 88.6-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Bryce Miller's higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this season (48.6% compared to 40.6% last year) ought to work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Typically, bats like Jorge Polanco who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Jacob deGrom.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Cal Raleigh pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.6% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
• Joc Pederson has hit the Runs Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.45 Units / 46% ROI)

• Date: April 11, 2025
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jacob deGrom - Rangers
  • Bryce Miller - Mariners

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