Texas Rangers vs Kansas City Royals Prediction & Picks 5/4/2024

Texas Rangers vs Kansas City Royals Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 4, 2024
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dane Dunning - Rangers
  • Michael Wacha - Royals

Betting Odds

Texas Rangers vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Texas Rangers vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

In an American League matchup, the Kansas City Royals will take on the Texas Rangers on May 4, 2024, at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals, with a season record of 20-13, are having a great season, while the Rangers, with a record of 17-16, are having an above-average season.

The Royals are projected to start right-handed pitcher Michael Wacha, who has a Win/Loss record of 1-3 this year and an ERA of 4.24, which is above average. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Wacha is the #128 best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating that he is below average. On the other hand, the Rangers are projected to start right-handed pitcher Dane Dunning, who has a Win/Loss record of 3-2 this year and an ERA of 4.13, also above average. Dunning's peripheral indicators suggest that he has been lucky this year and may perform worse going forward.

The Royals offense ranks as the #17 best in MLB this season, with an average team batting average, but they struggle with home runs, ranking #26 in the league. However, they excel in stolen bases, ranking #4. The Rangers offense, on the other hand, ranks as the #11 best in MLB, boasting a great team batting average, and they are also strong in home runs, ranking #5. However, they struggle with stolen bases, ranking #25.

Overall, this game promises to be an exciting matchup between the Royals and the Rangers. The Royals are having a great season, and with their strong offense and solid pitching from Michael Wacha, they have a good chance to come out on top. However, the Rangers' offense, led by their best hitter Josh H. Smith, poses a threat. It will be interesting to see how Dane Dunning performs against the Royals' disciplined and patient lineup.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Out of all starting pitchers, Dane Dunning's fastball velocity of 89.6 mph is in the 5th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Adolis Garcia's 16.2% Barrel% (a reliable metric to study power) is in the 96th percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Jonah Heim (the Rangers's expected catcher today) is considered to be an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Michael Wacha has averaged 92.2 adjusted pitches per start this year, placing in the 79th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

The Texas Rangers have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kyle Isbel can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Kansas City Royals batters jointly rank near the top of the league since the start of last season (10th-) as it relates to their 89.3-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 38 of their last 62 games at home (+12.40 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Run Line in 21 of their last 29 games (+15.00 Units / 37% ROI)
• MJ Melendez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 16 games (+13.80 Units / 69% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Final Score: Texas Rangers 5.07 vs Kansas City Royals 4.52

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