Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics Prediction For 9/24/2024

• Date: September 24, 2024
• Venue: Oakland Coliseum
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nathan Eovaldi - Rangers
  • Mitch Spence - Athletics

Betting Odds

Texas Rangers vs Oakland Athletics Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Texas Rangers vs Oakland Athletics Betting Preview

As the Oakland Athletics prepare to host the Texas Rangers on September 24, 2024, both teams find themselves struggling in the American League West. The Athletics, with a record of 67-89, are having a tough season, while the Rangers, at 74-82, are experiencing a below-average campaign. Despite both teams being out of contention, this game holds intrigue for bettors looking to capitalize on pitcher matchups and offensive tendencies.

The Athletics will send Mitch Spence to the mound. Spence, a right-handed pitcher, has been one of the weaker starters in the league, ranked 184th out of approximately 350 starting pitchers. His ERA of 4.30 is average, but his peripherals suggest he's vulnerable, as he projects to allow a high number of hits and walks. On the other hand, the Rangers will counter with Nathan Eovaldi, ranked 70th among starting pitchers. Eovaldi sports a solid 3.96 ERA and has been somewhat unlucky this season, as indicated by his lower xFIP. He is projected to allow fewer earned runs and strike out more batters compared to Spence.

Offensively, the Athletics have shown some power, ranking 7th in team home runs, despite a poor overall ranking of 20th in offense. Meanwhile, the Rangers' offense ranks 25th and struggles across the board, including a 21st ranking in home runs.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Rangers a slight edge with a 51% win probability, compared to the Athletics' 49%. This game is projected to be a close one, with the Rangers' implied team total slightly higher at 3.84 runs compared to the Athletics' 3.66. With Shea Langeliers and Wyatt Langford both in strong form for their respective teams, this matchup promises to deliver some fireworks despite the teams' overall standing.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Nathan Eovaldi has been given an above-average leash this year, tallying 4.6 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than league average.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Marcus Semien is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the weak outfield defense of Oakland (#3-worst of all teams on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

The Texas Rangers have been the 5th-unluckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better in the future

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Mitch Spence's high usage rate of his secondary pitches (84.2% this year) figures to work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Seth Brown is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 57% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Oakland Athletics bats jointly rank among the best in MLB this year (7th-) when assessing their 89.2-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 63 games (+10.35 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 32 of their last 44 games (+19.75 Units / 37% ROI)
• JJ Bleday has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+7.55 Units / 29% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Oakland Athletics Prediction

Final Score: Texas Rangers 4.23 vs Oakland Athletics 3.99

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