Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels Best Bet – 9/29/2024

• Date: September 29, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Nathan Eovaldi - Rangers
  • Jack Kochanowicz - Angels

Betting Odds

Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

As the Los Angeles Angels prepare to host the Texas Rangers on September 29, 2024, both teams are looking to salvage their seasons in this American League West matchup. With both clubs already out of playoff contention, this game might not have postseason implications, but it does offer an opportunity for individual performances to shine. The Angels, coming off a narrow 9-8 loss to the Rangers on September 28, will be looking to bounce back at Angel Stadium.

Jack Kochanowicz will take the mound for the Angels. The right-hander has had a challenging season, posting a 4.01 ERA but with a concerning 5.14 xERA, indicating potential regression. Despite pitching a stellar seven shutout innings in his last start, Kochanowicz ranks as the 267th best starter in MLB, suggesting his overall performance has been less than stellar. The Angels' offense, ranked 26th in MLB, hasn't been much help either, indicating a tough road against their division rivals.

On the other side, the Rangers are sending Nathan Eovaldi, the 75th ranked starter, to the bump. Despite a solid 3.96 ERA, Eovaldi's recent outings have been mixed, but his 11-8 record and above-average projections for strikeouts suggest he could capitalize against the struggling Angels' lineup. His ability to limit runs will be crucial against Los Angeles’s 22nd-ranked home run-hitting squad.

The Rangers' offense, although ranking 25th, does have bright spots, with Marcus Semien leading the way. Meanwhile, Wyatt Langford has been a standout performer over the last week, boasting a 1.153 OPS and four home runs in six games. Given their stronger bullpen, ranked 12th, compared to the Angels' 29th, the Rangers are projected as the favorites. The leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, gives Texas a 57% chance to take the win, slightly higher than their implied odds. This edge, paired with Eovaldi's potential to outduel Kochanowicz, positions the Rangers favorably in this series finale.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Nathan Eovaldi's 2188-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 17th percentile among all starting pitchers.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Adolis Garcia has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 96.5-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal 90.9-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Nathaniel Lowe has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.6%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 10th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Jack Kochanowicz is an extreme groundball pitcher (52.1% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Angel Stadium — the #6 HR venue in MLB — in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Brandon Drury has been unlucky this year, notching a .220 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .298 — a .078 difference.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

The Los Angeles Angels have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jack Lopez, Matt Thaiss, Niko Kavadas).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 47 of their last 90 games (+6.50 Units / 7% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 41 of their last 67 games (+13.80 Units / 17% ROI)
• Nathan Eovaldi has hit the Earned Runs Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+9.70 Units / 43% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: Texas Rangers 4.73 vs Los Angeles Angels 3.69

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