Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 7/7/2024

Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers Details

• Date: July 7, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zack Littell - Rays
  • Nathan Eovaldi - Rangers

Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers Betting Preview

The Texas Rangers and Tampa Bay Rays face off on July 7, 2024, at Globe Life Field in what marks the third game of their series. Both teams are looking to turn their seasons around, with the Rangers holding a 41-48 record and the Rays sitting at 44-45. While the Rangers have struggled, the Rays have been the picture of mediocrity. The stakes may not be sky-high, but every game counts in the battle for respectability.

Nathan Eovaldi takes the mound for the Rangers. He's been solid with a 5-3 record and an impressive 3.15 ERA this season. However, advanced metrics like his 3.74 xERA suggest that he may have been a bit lucky and could regress. Eovaldi is a high-groundball pitcher, which could work in his favor given the Rays' lack of power—they rank 26th in home runs. Nonetheless, Eovaldi's projections via THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, indicate he’s likely to pitch 5.8 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs and striking out 6.5 batters.

On the other side, the Rays will counter with Zack Littell. Littell has had a fair season, sporting a 3-5 record and a 3.94 ERA. His projections are less optimistic, averaging out to 5.5 innings pitched with 2.7 earned runs and 4.3 strikeouts. Littell will need to be cautious as the Rangers, albeit struggling offensively overall, do have potential to surprise.

Both teams are middling offensively, with the Rangers ranking 21st in offense and the Rays just a notch above at 20th. Neither team excels in power, but the Rays' speed on the bases (5th in stolen bases) could be a key differentiator.

The bullpen battle slightly favors Tampa Bay, whose relief corps rank 13th compared to Texas's 19th in advanced-stat Power Rankings. This could be crucial in what betting markets anticipate to be a close game. With a game total set at 7.5 runs, the odds suggest a low-scoring affair, and the Rangers' implied win probability sits at 55% versus the Rays' 45%.

In their last games, both teams showed flashes of capability; Wyatt Langford has been a standout for the Rangers with a .381 batting average and 1.194 OPS over the last week. For the Rays, Isaac Paredes has been equally impressive with a 1.156 OPS and two home runs in his last six games. As the series progresses, these individual performances could be the X-factors that tilt the game in either direction.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Zack Littell's fastball velocity has decreased 1.4 mph this season (92 mph) below where it was last year (93.4 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Brandon Lowe is apt to have an edge against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Texas Rangers has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Josh Lowe hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 94th percentile) and will be challenged by the game's 6th-deepest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Nathan Eovaldi has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 4.9 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average pitcher.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Marcus Semien has been unlucky in regards to his wOBA this year; his .291 rate is quite a bit lower than his .343 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

It may be best to expect better numbers for the Texas Rangers offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 9th-unluckiest offense in MLB this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 40 of their last 65 games (+16.10 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 39 of their last 63 games (+13.40 Units / 18% ROI)
• Leody Taveras has hit the Runs Under in 27 of his last 36 games (+10.00 Units / 14% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 4.09 vs Texas Rangers 4.38

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