Tampa Bay Rays vs San Diego Padres Prediction – 4/26/2025

Tampa Bay Rays vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

As the San Diego Padres host the Tampa Bay Rays on April 26, 2025, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions in the standings. The Padres sit at 17-9, showcasing a strong performance this season, while the Rays struggle with a record of 12-14, reflecting a below-average start. In their previous matchup, the Rays defeated the Padres.

On the mound, the Padres are projected to start Dylan Cease, who has an advanced-stat Power Ranking placing him as the 32nd best starting pitcher in MLB. Despite a mediocre Win/Loss record of 1-1 and a troubling ERA of 6.04, Cease's 3.42 xFIP suggests he has been unlucky and could perform better. He is expected to pitch an average of 5.7 innings while allowing 2.2 earned runs, which bodes well for the Padres given their potent offense, currently ranked 5th in MLB.

Ryan Pepiot takes the hill for the Rays, with an average Win/Loss record of 1-3 and an ERA of 4.82. His 3.63 xFIP indicates similar misfortune, projecting him to pitch 5.6 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs. The Rays' offense, while ranked 11th overall, struggles with power, sitting at 21st in home runs.

With the Padres' offense thriving, particularly in batting average at 3rd in MLB, they are favored with a moneyline of -155 and an average implied team total of 3.84 runs. The game total is set at a low 7.0 runs, hinting at a potentially tight contest as both teams look to capitalize on their respective strengths and weaknesses.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Ryan Pepiot's higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this season (60.6% compared to 49.4% last season) figures to work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Christopher Morel is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 89% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Tampa Bay Rays hitters collectively rank among the best in MLB this year (9th-) in regard to their 89.7-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Dylan Cease’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 outings (2467 rpm) has been considerably worse than than his seasonal rate (2529 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Jose Iglesias's average exit velocity has dropped off this year; his 85.8-mph EV last year has dropped off to 82.7-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Manny Machado hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games at home (+6.20 Units / 30% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.75 Units / 28% ROI)
• Gavin Sheets has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 100% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 3.75, San Diego Padres 3.81

• Date: April 26, 2025
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryan Pepiot - Rays
  • Dylan Cease - Padres

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