Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigers Pick For 9/26/2024

• Date: September 26, 2024
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tyler Alexander - Rays
  • Reese Olson - Tigers

Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Rays vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

As we approach the tail end of the 2024 season, the Detroit Tigers are in the midst of an above-average season with an 84-74 record, showing promise but still not in the playoff race. They host the Tampa Bay Rays, who sit at 78-80 in a somewhat average campaign, also out of playoff contention.

Taking the mound for Detroit is Reese Olson, a right-handed pitcher who ranks as the #48 best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X. With a 3.49 ERA, Olson has been a steady presence this season, despite a 4-8 win/loss record. His high ground-ball rate should play well against a Rays lineup that has struggled with power, ranking 27th in team home runs.

On the flip side, Tampa Bay will counter with lefty Tyler Alexander. While his 5.35 ERA suggests struggles, his 4.72 xFIP indicates some bad luck, hinting at potential improvement. Nonetheless, he faces a Tigers offense that, despite ranking 24th in MLB, has been buoyed by Kerry Carpenter's hot streak, as he's hit .357 with a 1.257 OPS over the last week.

Though the Tigers' offense lacks punch, ranked 23rd in home runs, they benefit from a solid bullpen, ranked 9th, compared to the Rays' 2nd-ranked bullpen. Oddsmakers have pegged the Tigers as favorites with a -165 moneyline, suggesting a 60% win probability. With a low game total of 7.5 runs, expect a pitching-centric contest, where the Tigers hope Olson's ground-ball skills keep the Rays' bats in check.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Tyler Alexander's 89-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 4th percentile among all starters.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Josh Lowe has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (87% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

It may be smart to expect positive regression for the Tampa Bay Rays offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 8th-unluckiest offense in the league this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Recording 93.1 adjusted pitches per GS this year on average, Reese Olson checks in at the 80th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Jake Rogers has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89.1-mph dropping to 77.7-mph in the last week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Detroit Tigers' bullpen grades out as the 9th-best out of all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 50 of their last 79 games (+18.50 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 87 of their last 146 games (+23.66 Units / 14% ROI)
• Josh Lowe has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 38% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 3.7 vs Detroit Tigers 4.36

Stay informed with the most recent MLB news and our analytics-driven MLB picks and predictions all season long.