Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigers Best Bet – 9/24/2024

• Date: September 24, 2024
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryan Pepiot - Rays
  • Tarik Skubal - Tigers

Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Rays vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

As the MLB season winds down, the Detroit Tigers and Tampa Bay Rays face off at Comerica Park on September 24, 2024. The Tigers are in the thick of the playoff race with an 82-74 record, enjoying an above-average season. Meanwhile, the Rays sit at a balanced 78-78, reflecting an average campaign thus far. This American League matchup kicks off a new series, and both teams are looking to make a statement.

Detroit sends Tarik Skubal to the mound, the top-ranked pitcher according to the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X. With a stellar 17-4 win/loss record and a sparkling 2.48 ERA, Skubal is having an elite season. His high strikeout rate (30.3 K%) could spell trouble for a Rays offense that ranks 6th in strikeouts. Skubal's projections for today are strong, with an expected 7.3 strikeouts and just 1.6 earned runs allowed.

On the flip side, the Rays will counter with Ryan Pepiot. Ranked 51st among starting pitchers, Pepiot has had a solid year, posting an 8-6 record and a respectable 3.64 ERA. While his projections for today are decent, with an average of 5.6 strikeouts and 2.2 earned runs allowed, he faces a Tigers lineup that, despite its low rankings in batting average (24th), home runs (23rd), and stolen bases (26th), is led by a hot Kerry Carpenter. Over the past week, Carpenter has been on fire, boasting a .444 batting average and two home runs.

Both teams bring contrasting bullpens into the mix, with Detroit ranked 11th and Tampa Bay 3rd in Power Rankings. Despite the Tigers’ offensive struggles, their pitching advantage, led by Skubal, gives them the edge. The projections favor Detroit as a big favorite, with a projected 63% win probability. As the teams aim to finish the season strong, this matchup could be pivotal in shaping their postseason aspirations.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

With 6 bats who hit from the other side in the opposing team's projected offense, Ryan Pepiot encounters a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Dylan Carlson is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 61% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Tampa Bay Rays' bullpen ranks as the 3rd-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Over his last 3 games started, Tarik Skubal has seen a substantial spike in his fastball spin rate: from 2226 rpm over the entire season to 2278 rpm lately.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

Parker Meadows has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87-mph dropping to 79.8-mph in the past week's worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

In today's game, Trey Sweeney is at a disadvantage facing the league's 2nd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.8% rate (98th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 50 of their last 79 games (+17.80 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 84 of their last 142 games (+21.91 Units / 13% ROI)
• Tarik Skubal has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.35 Units / 41% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 3.05 vs Detroit Tigers 3.74

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