St. Louis Cardinals vs Houston Astros Prediction, Odds & Picks – 6/4/2024

St. Louis Cardinals vs Houston Astros Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: June 4, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Andre Pallante - Cardinals
  • Spencer Arrighetti - Astros

Betting Odds

St. Louis Cardinals vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated Interleague matchup, the Houston Astros will host the St. Louis Cardinals at Minute Maid Park on June 4, 2024. The Astros, who currently hold a record of 27-34, are having a tough season, while the Cardinals, with a record of 28-30, are performing below average.

On the mound, the Astros are projected to start right-handed pitcher Spencer Arrighetti, who has struggled this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Arrighetti is ranked as the #194 best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers. However, his performance may improve going forward, as his 4.01 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky.

Opposing Arrighetti will be Cardinals' right-handed pitcher Andre Pallante. Pallante, though considered a below-average pitcher by our Power Rankings, has shown promise with an ERA of 3.94 this season. However, his 4.54 xFIP indicates that he may experience some regression in his performance.

When it comes to offense, the Astros have been solid this season, ranking as the 6th best in MLB. They have showcased their power with the 9th most home runs in the league. On the other hand, the Cardinals' offense has struggled, ranking as the 22nd best in MLB. However, they have displayed some power with the 5th most home runs.

Looking at the betting odds, the Astros are favored to win with a current moneyline of -150, giving them an implied win probability of 57%. The Cardinals, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +125 and an implied win probability of 43%.

With the Astros having a higher projected win probability than their implied win probability, they appear to have an advantage in this matchup. However, the Cardinals' strong bullpen and the performance of Pallante could make this game more competitive than anticipated.

It will be an exciting game as both teams look to improve their season records. Will the Astros continue their offensive prowess, or will the Cardinals find a way to overcome their struggles? Only time will tell in this intriguing Interleague clash.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Andre Pallante projects to strikeout 3 batters in today's matchup, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Nolan Gorman has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (54% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Nolan Arenado pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.7% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Spencer Arrighetti's high utilization rate of his secondary pitches (59.5% this year) should work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

This year, there has been a decline in Yordan Alvarez's footspeed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 25.86 ft/sec last year to 25.27 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The 3rd-best projected offense of all teams today in terms of overall offensive ability is that of the Houston Astros.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 58 games (+9.75 Units / 15% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 28 away games (+3.85 Units / 12% ROI)
• Nolan Gorman has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 13 games (+19.45 Units / 150% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.59 vs Houston Astros 4.91

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