St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves Pick – 4/22/2025

St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

As the Atlanta Braves prepare to face the St. Louis Cardinals on April 22, 2025, both teams are struggling to find their footing early in the season. Currently, the Braves sit at 9-13, while the Cardinals trail closely with a 9-14 record. This matchup comes on the heels of a tightly contested game yesterday, where the Braves edged out the Cardinals 7-6, marking a critical victory for Atlanta.

Michael Petersen is projected to take the mound for the Braves, making his first start of the season after a stint in the bullpen. Despite a pristine ERA of 0.00, his advanced stats suggest he may have been riding luck, as indicated by a 2.75 xFIP. Petersen is expected to pitch around 1.3 innings, which could put extra pressure on an already beleaguered Braves bullpen ranked 30th in MLB. On the other hand, Andre Pallante of the Cardinals, who boasts a respectable 3.22 ERA and a solid Win/Loss record of 2-1, will look to build on his recent performance, albeit with a tendency to give up hits and walks.

Offensively, the Braves have shown flashes of power, ranking 9th in MLB for home runs, but their overall offensive ranking is just 19th. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have a much stronger offensive profile, sitting 7th overall and 2nd in batting average, showcasing their ability to generate runs consistently.

With the Braves favored at -135 on the moneyline and an implied team total of 4.50 runs, there’s reason to believe they can build on their recent success, especially against a Cardinals team that has been underwhelming despite their better overall offensive stats. As the game unfolds at Truist Park, both teams will be eager to turn their season around and gain some momentum.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Andre Pallante has used his slider 8.5% more often this season (26.3%) than he did last season (17.8%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

This season, Alec Burleson's Barrel% has decreased significantly, dropping from 6.6% last year to just 0% this year.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the St. Louis Cardinals' bullpen grades out as the 10th-worst out of all the teams in baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Marcell Ozuna has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 96.5-mph average to last year's 92.1-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Sean Murphy pulls many of his flyballs (35.3% — 89th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 2nd-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.45 Units / 29% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.80 Units / 26% ROI)
• Ozzie Albies has hit the Total Bases Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+4.45 Units / 34% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Predicted Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.84, Atlanta Braves 4.85

• Date: April 22, 2025
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Andre Pallante - Cardinals
  • Michael Petersen - Braves

Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.