Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox Pick – 4/22/2025

Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

On April 22, 2025, the Boston Red Sox will host the Seattle Mariners at Fenway Park in what promises to be an exciting matchup. Both teams are having above-average seasons, with the Red Sox holding a record of 13-11 and the Mariners at 12-10.

Boston is projected to start Brayan Bello, who ranks as the 55th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. Bello's average projections suggest he will pitch 5.2 innings while allowing 2.6 earned runs and striking out 5.0 batters. However, his tendency to allow 5.1 hits and 1.8 walks per outing raises some red flags for the Red Sox. On the other hand, Bryce Miller, ranked 69th, has a solid ERA of 3.43 but comes with a high walk rate of 11.6%, which could be problematic against a patient Red Sox lineup that ranks 5th in walks this season.

Offensively, the Red Sox rank 12th in MLB, showcasing a balanced attack, while the Mariners sit at 13th overall but struggle with a 23rd ranking in team batting average. However, Seattle's power is undeniable, ranking 5th in home runs and boasting the league's best stolen base percentage. This power could play a significant role in a high-scoring game, as the Game Total is set at 9.0 runs.

Betting lines currently favor the Red Sox, with a moneyline of -130, implying a win probability of 54%. With both teams looking to secure a critical victory early in this series, expect a competitive showdown at Fenway Park.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Bryce Miller's fastball velocity has fallen 1.2 mph this season (93.9 mph) below where it was last year (95.1 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Randy Arozarena has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 99.7-mph average to last season's 94.2-mph average.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Cal Raleigh pulls many of his flyballs (41.2% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Considering that flyball batters have a big edge over groundball pitchers, Brayan Bello and his 51.1% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a tough position in today's outing matching up with 1 opposing GB batters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Extreme groundball hitters like Alex Bregman usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Bryce Miller.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Boston Red Sox have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Trevor Story, Wilyer Abreu, Carlos Narvaez).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 22 games (+5.25 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 18 games (+6.85 Units / 29% ROI)
• J.P. Crawford has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 20 away games (+7.50 Units / 27% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4.94, Boston Red Sox 4.87

• Date: April 22, 2025
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bryce Miller - Mariners
  • Brayan Bello - Red Sox

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