Seattle Mariners vs Arizona Diamondbacks Pick – 6/10/2025

On June 10, 2025, the Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Seattle Mariners at Chase Field for the second game of their interleague matchup. The Diamondbacks enter this game with a record of 32-34, a performance that has been below average this season. In contrast, the Mariners hold a slightly better record at 33-32, positioning them as an above-average team. The stakes are high, as both teams are looking to gain momentum in a competitive landscape.

In their previous game, the Mariners fell to the Diamondbacks, which could give Arizona a psychological edge heading into this matchup. Brandon Pfaadt is set to take the mound for the Diamondbacks, and despite being ranked as the 160th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, he carries a decent 7-4 record this year. His ERA of 5.51 is concerning, though his 4.20 xFIP indicates he may be due for some positive regression. Pfaadt's projections suggest he will pitch around 5.7 innings, allowing an average of 2.8 earned runs, but he also struggles with walks, averaging 1.3 per game.

On the other side, Bryan Woo is expected to start for the Mariners, coming in as the 20th best starting pitcher in MLB. With a strong ERA of 3.07 and a low walk rate of 3.7%, Woo poses a challenge for the powerful Diamondbacks offense, which ranks 3rd best in MLB. However, they also rank 3rd in walks, and Woo's control may limit their ability to capitalize on that strength.

With a Game Total set at an average 8.5 runs, betting markets have the Diamondbacks at -105, suggesting this matchup will be closely contested. Arizona's offense, bolstered by a recent hot streak from their best hitter, might just have the edge to pull off another win against Seattle.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

The Arizona Diamondbacks have 7 bats in the projected batting order that will hold the platoon advantage over Bryan Woo today, which is especially troublesome given his large platoon split.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Arizona's #1-ranked outfield defense of all teams today poses a formidable challenge for Cal Raleigh, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Today, Cal Raleigh is at a disadvantage facing the league's 3rd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 43.2% rate (100th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

The Arizona Diamondbacks outfield defense profiles as the best among every team today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Pavin Smith has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (68% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have been the 4th-luckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse in future games

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 27 of their last 49 games (+12.45 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.15 Units / 69% ROI)
• Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+6.90 Units / 14% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4.79, Arizona Diamondbacks 4.48

• Date: June 10, 2025
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bryan Woo - Mariners
  • Brandon Pfaadt - D-Backs

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