Seattle Mariners at Cleveland Guardians Best Bet – 6/18/2024

Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians Details

• Date: June 18, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bryce Miller - Mariners
  • Triston McKenzie - Guardians

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

The Cleveland Guardians and Seattle Mariners are set to clash on June 18, 2024, in what promises to be an exciting American League matchup at Progressive Field. Both teams are enjoying stellar seasons, with the Guardians sporting a 44-25 record and the Mariners close behind at 43-31. This game marks the first in the series between these two competitive squads, and it could have significant playoff implications.

On the mound, the Guardians will start right-hander Triston McKenzie, who has had a mixed season with a 3-3 record and a 4.10 ERA over 13 starts. However, McKenzie's underlying metrics, including a 4.94 xFIP, suggest he's been somewhat fortunate and may regress. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects McKenzie to allow 2.7 earned runs over 5.2 innings, which is average. Yet, his struggles with control and contact—projecting 4.6 hits and 1.7 walks—indicate he could be in for a rough outing against a potent Mariners offense that ranks 7th in MLB in home runs.

The Mariners counter with Bryce Miller, another right-hander who boasts a 5-5 record and an impressive 3.48 ERA over 14 starts. Like McKenzie, Miller's peripherals suggest some luck, with a 4.01 xERA. Today's projections have Miller allowing 2.7 earned runs over 5.4 innings, which is average. Despite his solid ERA, Miller's strikeout projection of 3.7 is concerning, and he'll face a Guardians offense that ranks 11th in MLB but has been particularly good at stealing bases, ranking 9th.

Offensively, Cleveland has been led by Steven Kwan, who has been on fire over the last week with a .591 batting average and a 1.336 OPS. On the Mariners' side, Dominic Canzone has been their best hitter recently, hitting .455 with a 1.117 OPS over the last seven games.

In the bullpen, Cleveland holds a significant advantage, ranking 1st in the Power Rankings, while Seattle's bullpen struggles at 26th. With the odds set at -120 for the Guardians, implying a 52% win probability, and given their strong bullpen and overall performance this season, Cleveland seems poised to take the first game of the series.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Bryce Miller's fastball spin rate has dropped 104 rpm this year (2487 rpm) below where it was last season (2591 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

Extreme groundball bats like Cal Raleigh generally hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Triston McKenzie.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Seattle Mariners' bullpen grades out as the 5th-worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Given that groundball batters are less effective against groundball pitchers, Triston McKenzie (40.6% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated today with 2 GB hitters in the opposition's projected lineup.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Tyler Freeman is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 77% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Bo Naylor hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 81st percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's 7th-deepest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 61 games (+10.57 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 28 games (+6.40 Units / 16% ROI)
• Dylan Moore has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+7.35 Units / 24% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4.4 vs Cleveland Guardians 4.52

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.