Seattle Mariners at Baltimore Orioles Best Bet – 5/17/2024

Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 17, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bryce Miller - Mariners
  • John Means - Orioles

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

The Baltimore Orioles will be hosting the Seattle Mariners on May 17, 2024, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. As the home team, the Orioles will look to continue their successful season with a record of 27-14, while the Mariners aim to maintain their above-average performance with a record of 24-20. This American League matchup promises an exciting showdown between two competitive teams.

The Orioles are projected to start left-handed pitcher John Means, who has had a solid season so far. With a win/loss record of 1-0 and an ERA of 3.09, Means has been a reliable presence on the mound. However, his 3.92 xFIP suggests that he may have been fortunate and could face challenges in the future.

Opposing Means will be right-handed pitcher Bryce Miller for the Mariners. Miller has started eight games this season, boasting a 3-3 record and an impressive ERA of 2.66. However, like Means, his 3.57 xFIP indicates that he may experience regression in his performance.

This game marks the first of a series between the Orioles and the Mariners. Both teams will be looking to set the tone and gain early momentum. The Orioles' offense has been performing well, ranking 7th in MLB, while the Mariners' offense has struggled, ranking 20th. However, it's important to note that these rankings are based on underlying talent and not solely on year-to-date performance.

In terms of bullpen strength, both teams have struggled, with the Orioles ranking 20th and the Mariners ranking 24th according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. This suggests that the outcome of the game may rely heavily on the starting pitchers.

Over the last seven games, the Orioles' standout hitter has been Jordan Westburg, while Luke Raley has been the Mariners' top performer during the same period.

Considering the projections, the Orioles have a slight edge in this matchup. However, it's important to recognize that baseball is a dynamic and unpredictable game. Both teams have the potential to swing the outcome in their favor. The Orioles' strong season record and offensive performance may give them the upper hand, but the Mariners have shown resilience and could pose a challenge.

As the game unfolds, keep an eye on the performances of John Means and Bryce Miller on the mound, as well as the offensive contributions from key players on both teams. The outcome of this game will not only impact the standings but also provide valuable insights for sports bettors.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Bryce Miller's 2459-rpm spin rate on his fastball this season is a significant 132-rpm decline from last year's 2591-rpm rate.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

Cal Raleigh is penciled in 7th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Projected catcher Cal Raleigh projects as an elite pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

John Means is an extreme flyball pitcher (42.1% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #23 HR venue in the league in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

This year, there has been a decline in Anthony Santander's quickness with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 26.64 ft/sec last year to 26.17 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Baltimore Orioles bats as a group rank near the top of the league since the start of last season (5th-) when assessing their 89.4-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 16 games at home (+5.70 Units / 29% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.00 Units / 17% ROI)
• Cedric Mullins has hit the Total Bases Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.75 Units / 74% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4.17 vs Baltimore Orioles 4.76

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