San Francisco Giants vs Pittsburgh Pirates Odds & Picks – 5/23/2024

San Francisco Giants vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 23, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mason Black - Giants
  • Paul Skenes - Pirates

Betting Odds

San Francisco Giants vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Francisco Giants vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

On May 23, 2024, the Pittsburgh Pirates will face off against the San Francisco Giants at PNC Park. The Pirates, with a season record of 23-27, are having a below-average season, while the Giants, with a record of 24-26, are also struggling. This National League matchup is the third game in the series between these two teams.

The Pirates will be the home team, hoping to turn their season around with a victory. They are projected to start right-handed pitcher Paul Skenes, who has been performing exceptionally well this year. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Skenes is ranked as the #13 best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers, making him an elite player on the mound. In his two starts this season, Skenes has a win/loss record of 1-0 and an impressive ERA of 2.70. Despite his stellar performance, his 1.31 xFIP suggests that he has been somewhat unlucky and is likely to perform even better going forward.

On the other side, the Giants will send right-handed pitcher Mason Black to the mound. Black has struggled this season, with a record of 0-1 and an ERA of 7.71. However, his 6.22 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and may improve in future outings.

In their last game, the Pirates faced the Giants and suffered a 9-5 loss. The Pirates had a closing Moneyline price of -125, indicating that the game was expected to be close. The Giants, on the other hand, had a closing Moneyline price of +105, suggesting that they were the underdogs. Despite this, the Giants emerged victorious.

Looking at the offensive side, the Pirates rank as the #27 best team in MLB this season, while the Giants are ranked #14. The Pirates offense has struggled, ranking #26 in batting average and #23 in home runs. However, they have shown some strength in stolen bases, ranking #12 in the league. The Giants, on the other hand, have a below-average batting average, ranking #21, but have shown some power with their #19 ranking in home runs. However, they have struggled in stolen bases, ranking #29.

Based on the current odds, the Pirates are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -160, giving them an implied win probability of 59%. THE BAT X projects the Pirates as a big favorite with a win probability of 61%. The Giants, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +135 and an implied win probability of 41%, with THE BAT X projecting them at 39%.

With Paul Skenes, an elite pitcher, on the mound for the Pirates and facing a struggling Giants offense, the Pirates have a favorable matchup. However, baseball can be unpredictable, and anything can happen on the field. It will be an exciting game to watch as both teams look to improve their records and secure a victory.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Among all the teams playing today, the 2nd-best infield defense belongs to the San Francisco Giants.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Despite posting a .394 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes LaMonte Wade Jr. has been very fortunate given the .065 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .329.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

The San Francisco Giants bullpen profiles as the best in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Paul Skenes has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 15.7 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Ji Hwan Bae's 2.2% Barrel% (an advanced standard to evaluate power) ranks in the 4th percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Andrew McCutchen pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.7% — 84th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game's 9th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 28 games (+7.55 Units / 24% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 25 away games (+7.40 Units / 27% ROI)
• Jared Triolo has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 13 games at home (+6.60 Units / 51% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: San Francisco Giants 3.69 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.18

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