San Francisco Giants vs Minnesota Twins Prediction – 5/10/2025

On May 10, 2025, the Minnesota Twins will host the San Francisco Giants at Target Field for the second game of an interleague series. The Twins are seeking to bounce back after a disappointing start to the season, currently sitting at 19-20. Meanwhile, the Giants are enjoying a strong campaign at 24-15. The Twins won the first game of the series, as they enter Saturday's action on a six-game winning streak.

Projected starters for this matchup will be Joe Ryan for the Twins and Logan Webb for the Giants. Ryan has been solid this season, ranking 19th among MLB starters according to advanced statistics, and boasts an impressive ERA of 2.93. However, his 3.44 xFIP suggests he may not maintain that level of performance going forward. Ryan projects to pitch approximately 5.8 innings, allowing 2.2 earned runs, but he has an alarming tendency to give up 4.5 hits and 1.2 walks per game.

In contrast, Logan Webb, an elite pitcher ranked 6th in MLB, has been dominant, with a 2.61 ERA and a low FIP of 1.85. Webb's projections indicate he will likely pitch 6.4 innings, allowing just 2.4 earned runs while striking out 5.9 batters.

The Twins offense ranks 19th overall, but their low batting average of .225 (22nd) and struggles with power and stolen bases limit their potential. On the flip side, the Giants' offense has also struggled at times, particularly with a 24th ranking in batting average, but they have the capacity to score runs when needed.

With the Twins' moneyline set at -115 and a low game total of 7.0 runs, this matchup is expected to be close, presenting an intriguing betting opportunity as both teams work to assert themselves in the standings.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Logan Webb has used his slider 7.7% more often this season (29%) than he did last year (21.3%).

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Heliot Ramos has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (73% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants' bullpen ranks as the 2nd-best among all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Joe Ryan's fastball velocity has decreased 1.6 mph this season (92.4 mph) below where it was last year (94 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

From last season to this one, Willi Castro's flyball exit velocity has decreased from an average of 90.6 mph to 83 mph.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the Minnesota Twins are expected to score the least runs (3.55 on average) of all teams today.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 34 games (+12.35 Units / 33% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 21 away games (+7.40 Units / 32% ROI)
• Trevor Larnach has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+6.50 Units / 14% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Francisco Giants 4.01, Minnesota Twins 3.55

• Date: May 10, 2025
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Logan Webb - Giants
  • Joe Ryan - Twins

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