San Francisco Giants vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Pick & Preview – 7/7/2024

San Francisco Giants vs Cleveland Guardians Details

• Date: July 7, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Hayden Birdsong - Giants
  • Carlos Carrasco - Guardians

Betting Odds

San Francisco Giants vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Francisco Giants vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

The Cleveland Guardians are set to host the San Francisco Giants on July 7, 2024, at Progressive Field in an interleague matchup. With a record of 55-32, the Guardians are having a fantastic season and sit comfortably in a division race. Contrarily, the Giants at 44-46 are stuck in mediocrity and looking to gain momentum.

The pitching duel features Carlos Carrasco for the Guardians and Hayden Birdsong for the Giants. Carrasco, a right-hander, has struggled with a 3-6 record and a poor 5.21 ERA across 15 starts. However, his xFIP of 4.24 suggests he's been somewhat unlucky and could see better results moving forward. Birdsong, another right-hander, has a 1-0 record with a 4.66 ERA in his 2 starts. Despite this seemingly average ERA, his 6.01 xERA indicates he has been lucky and might regress.

The Guardians boast a marginally better offense, ranking 12th in MLB. They excel in power, being 10th in home runs, and speed, ranking 8th in stolen bases. Daniel Schneemann has been their standout hitter recently, with an OPS of 0.983 over the last week. The Giants, with the 13th-best offense, lag especially in stolen bases, ranking last in MLB. Michael Conforto has been hot with a 1.167 OPS over the last 7 games.

The bullpens are a strength for both squads. The Giants' bullpen ranks 1st, and the Guardians' ranks 3rd per advanced-stat Power Rankings, providing a reliable safety net should the starters falter.

According to the projections, the Guardians have an implied win probability of 55%, with a team total of 4.76 runs, suggesting a higher expectation compared to the Giants' average implied team total of 4.24 runs. Despite Carrasco's struggles, the Guardians' superior offense and strong bullpen tilt the scales in their favor. Expect a close contest, but Cleveland's overall edge might just see them through.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Hayden Birdsong has a reverse platoon split and should be aided by facing 7 opposite-handed hitters in this game.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Michael Conforto is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 66% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants' bullpen grades out as the best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Carlos Carrasco’s fastball velocity over his last 3 outings (92.2 mph) has been quite a bit faster than than his seasonal rate (91 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Brayan Rocchio's average exit velocity has dropped off of late; his 84.6-mph seasonal mark has dropped to 77.7-mph in the past week's worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Jose Ramirez pulls many of his flyballs (41% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 52 of their last 85 games (+15.30 Units / 15% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 55 games (+10.10 Units / 17% ROI)
• Heliot Ramos has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 27 of his last 43 games (+9.55 Units / 18% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Final Score: San Francisco Giants 4.4 vs Cleveland Guardians 4.17

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