San Francisco Giants vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction – 3/29/2025

San Francisco Giants vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

As the Cincinnati Reds and San Francisco Giants meet for the second game of their series on March 29, 2025, both teams are looking to establish momentum. The Reds, having started the season with a record of 0-1, are struggling, while the Giants come in with a 1-0 record, riding high after a solid opening game.

Cincinnati's Nick Lodolo is projected to take the mound, and while he ranks as the 67th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system, he has shown mixed results. Lodolo is a lefty who, on average, is expected to pitch 5.1 innings and allow 2.4 earned runs, but he also projects to give up 4.7 hits and 1.5 walks, which could be problematic against a Giants lineup that is off to a strong start. His strikeout projection of 6.0 batters is a silver lining, suggesting he can be effective at times.

On the other side, the Giants will counter with Justin Verlander, who, despite his storied career, is currently viewed as a below-average pitcher by the projections. He is expected to pitch 5.0 innings while allowing 2.7 earned runs and 4.7 hits, along with 1.6 walks. Verlander's recent performance has raised eyebrows, particularly given his struggles in the previous season.

With a game total set at 8.5 runs, betting markets indicate a close contest, reflected in the Reds' moneyline of -130 and the Giants' at +110. The Reds have a high implied team total of 4.45 runs, suggesting they might find success against Verlander. This matchup offers an intriguing opportunity for Cincinnati to turn their season around, especially if Lodolo can harness his strikeout potential while minimizing hits and walks.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

The San Francisco Giants infield defense profiles as the 3rd-weakest among every team in action today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Wilmer Flores pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.8% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 7th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Nick Lodolo to be on a bit of a short leash in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 77 pitches.

• A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Typically, bats like Spencer Steer who hit a lot of flyballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Justin Verlander.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Jose Trevino, the Reds's expected catcher in today's matchup, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 83 of their last 142 games (+16.15 Units / 10% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 38 away games (+11.47 Units / 26% ROI)

• Date: March 29, 2025
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Justin Verlander - Giants
  • Nick Lodolo - Reds

Betting Odds

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