San Francisco Giants vs Chicago Cubs Prediction – 5/5/2025

San Francisco Giants vs Chicago Cubs Betting Preview

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to face the San Francisco Giants on May 5, 2025, at Wrigley Field, both teams are enjoying solid seasons. The Cubs hold a record of 21-14, while the Giants sit slightly ahead at 22-13. This matchup marks the first game in a series that could have significant implications for both teams.

In their previous outing, the Cubs were shut out and will look to bounce back offensively in this game. They'll look to Matthew Boyd to help them get back on track. Boyd, ranked 64th among MLB starters, has been effective this season with a 2-2 record and an impressive 2.70 ERA. However, his 4.40 xFIP suggests he might have been a bit fortunate, indicating that he could face challenges moving forward.

On the other side, the Giants will counter with Landen Roupp, who has also started six games this season but has struggled with a 5.10 ERA. Roupp's 3.50 xFIP indicates he may be due for some positive regression, but he will need to navigate a powerful Cubs offense that ranks 2nd in MLB. The Cubs have also been patient at the plate, ranking 2nd in walks, which could put pressure on Roupp, who has a high walk rate of 10.4%.

The Cubs' offense is firing on all cylinders, leading the league in batting average and home runs. With a current moneyline of -145, they are favored to win, and projections suggest they could score around 4.04 runs today. In contrast, the Giants face a tougher road, with an implied team total of just 3.46 runs. Given the Cubs' offensive prowess and Boyd's solid form, they appear well-positioned to take the first game of this series.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Out of all SPs, Landen Roupp's fastball spin rate of 2008 rpm grades out in the 8th percentile since the start of last season.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Patrick Bailey has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.3-mph dropping to 79.7-mph in the past two weeks' worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Wilmer Flores pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.3% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Matthew Boyd is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.2% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #22 HR venue among all parks in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Extreme flyball bats like Kyle Tucker generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Landen Roupp.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The underlying talent of the Chicago Cubs projected offense today (.332 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a fair amount weaker than their .343 wOBA this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.50 Units / 38% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 26 games (+5.20 Units / 17% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Chicago Cubs Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Francisco Giants 3.61, Chicago Cubs 4.19

• Date: May 5, 2025
• Venue: Wrigley Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Landen Roupp - Giants
  • Matthew Boyd - Cubs

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.