San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies Best Bet – 5/6/2024

San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 6, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mason Black - Giants
  • Zack Wheeler - Phillies

Betting Odds

San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated National League matchup, the Philadelphia Phillies will host the San Francisco Giants on May 6, 2024, at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies, who boast an impressive record of 24-11 this season, are having a great year and look to continue their winning streak. Meanwhile, the Giants have struggled with a record of 15-20, making this season a challenging one for them.

The starting pitchers for the game are projected to be Zack Wheeler for the Phillies and Mason Black for the Giants. Wheeler, a right-handed pitcher, has been exceptional this season and is ranked as the #5 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. In contrast, Black is considered a below-average pitcher.

Wheeler has started seven games this year, with a Win/Loss record of 3-3 and an outstanding ERA of 1.91. However, his 2.77 xFIP suggests that he may have been fortunate so far and could regress in future performances. Nevertheless, he is projected to pitch an average of 6.0 innings, allowing 2.1 earned runs, and striking out 7.0 batters per game. On the other hand, Black is projected to pitch an average of 4.3 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs and striking out 4.3 batters. It seems that Wheeler has the advantage in this pitching matchup.

The Phillies' offense has been impressive this season, ranking as the #4 best in MLB. Their best hitter, Alec Bohm, has been a key contributor with a .360 batting average and a 1.006 OPS. In their last game against the Giants, the Phillies emerged victorious with a score of 5-4, showcasing their ability to win close games.

The Giants' offense, on the other hand, has struggled this season, ranking as the #20 best in MLB. Their best hitter, Michael Conforto, has recorded five home runs in 32 games. In their last game against the Phillies, the Giants suffered a narrow defeat with a score of 5-4.

Analyzing the teams' performance and the projections, it is clear that the Phillies have the upper hand in this matchup. They are considered heavy favorites with an implied win probability of 65%. The Giants, as underdogs, have an implied win probability of 35%. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, also projects the Phillies as the favorites with a win probability of 64%.

Based on the current odds, the Phillies have a high implied team total of 4.37 runs, while the Giants have a relatively low implied team total of 3.13 runs. THE BAT X projects the Phillies to score an average of 4.52 runs in this game, while the Giants are projected to score 3.53 runs.

With a strong pitching performance from Wheeler and an impressive offense, the Phillies have a significant advantage in this matchup. However, in baseball, anything can happen, and the Giants will aim to defy the odds and pull off an upset. It will be an exciting game to watch as both teams battle it out on the field.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

When it comes to his home runs, Matt Chapman has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season. His 17.5 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been a fair amount lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 30.1.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants' bullpen grades out as the 2nd-best among all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Zack Wheeler has been granted an above-average leash this year, tallying 7.5 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average starter.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Brandon Marsh has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (81% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the lineup today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Brandon Marsh has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Run Line in 23 of their last 40 games at home (+9.30 Units / 21% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 80 of their last 129 games (+25.97 Units / 17% ROI)
• Thairo Estrada has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 7 games (+13.50 Units / 193% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: San Francisco Giants 3.53 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.52

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