San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies Best Bet – 5/8/2024

San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 8, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jordan Hicks - Giants
  • Peter Lambert - Rockies

Betting Odds

San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

The Colorado Rockies are set to take on the San Francisco Giants in a National League West matchup at Coors Field on May 8, 2024. The Rockies, who hold a record of 8-27 this season, are having a tough time, while the Giants, with a record of 16-21, are also struggling.

On the mound for the Rockies will be right-handed pitcher Peter Lambert, projected to start against the Giants' right-handed pitcher Jordan Hicks. Lambert has had a challenging season so far, with an ERA of 5.66. However, his xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward. Hicks, on the other hand, has been performing well with an impressive ERA of 1.89, although his xFIP indicates that he may experience some regression.

This game is the second in the series between these two teams. In their previous matchup, the Giants secured a 5-0 victory over the Rockies. The Giants were the favorites in that game, with a closing Moneyline price of -160 and an implied win probability of 60%.

The Rockies offense has struggled this season, ranking as the 25th best in MLB. They have particularly struggled in home runs and stolen bases, ranking 24th and 30th, respectively. On the other hand, the Giants offense is slightly better, ranking 22nd overall.

Ryan McMahon has been the Rockies' best hitter this season, recording a batting average of .302 with 5 home runs and 19 RBIs. For the Giants, Michael Conforto has been their standout player, hitting 5 home runs.

The Rockies have a tough task ahead as they face the Giants, who are favored to win with an implied win probability of 61%. THE BAT X projects the Giants to score an average of 5.42 runs in this game, while the Rockies are projected to score 4.12 runs.

With the odds stacked against them, the Rockies will need a strong performance from Lambert to overcome the Giants' offense. However, the Giants' pitching staff, led by Hicks, may have an advantage against the strikeout-prone Rockies lineup.

As the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X predicts a 40% win probability for the Rockies in this game. However, based on the current odds, the Rockies have an implied win probability of only 39%.

Overall, the Giants appear to have the edge in this matchup. However, in baseball, anything can happen, and the Rockies will be looking to bounce back from their recent loss and pull off an upset at home.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Jordan Hicks is an extreme groundball pitcher (53.3% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Coors Field — the #7 HR venue in MLB — in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Colorado's #1-ranked outfield defense on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Mike Yastrzemski, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The San Francisco Giants have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Mike Yastrzemski, Matt Chapman, Blake Sabol).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Peter Lambert's higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this season (63.9% compared to 53.7% last season) figures to work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Charlie Blackmon has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (92% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the lineup today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Colorado Rockies batters as a group rank in the cellar of baseball since the start of last season ( 3rd-worst) as it relates to their 87.9-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 16 games at home (+8.00 Units / 50% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 56 of their last 86 games (+24.27 Units / 24% ROI)
• Matt Chapman has hit the RBIs Under in 16 of his last 17 games (+14.20 Units / 42% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Final Score: San Francisco Giants 5.42 vs Colorado Rockies 4.12

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