San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction For 9/24/2024

• Date: September 24, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Logan Webb - Giants
  • Brandon Pfaadt - D-Backs

Betting Odds

San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

As the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants prepare to square off on September 24, 2024, at Chase Field, the stakes are high in this National League West matchup. The Diamondbacks, boasting an impressive 87-70 season record, are in playoff contention and looking to solidify their position. Meanwhile, the Giants, with a 78-79 record, have had an average season and are likely out of the playoff picture.

In the first game of this series, the Giants took the win, setting the stage for an intriguing pitching duel in the second game. Arizona will rely on Brandon Pfaadt, who has been solid with a 10-9 record and an ERA of 4.66. Despite an average ERA, Pfaadt's xFIP of 3.62 suggests he's been somewhat unlucky and could see better results. On the mound for the Giants is Logan Webb, who is having an elite season with a 12-10 record and a 3.58 ERA. Webb's impressive groundball rate (57%) might help him neutralize Arizona's powerful lineup, which ranks 4th in home runs this season.

Offensively, the Diamondbacks have been a force, ranking 1st in overall offense and 2nd in batting average. Ketel Marte has been a standout performer for Arizona recently, hitting .350 with a 1.369 OPS over the last week. The Giants, however, have struggled offensively, ranking 21st overall. Casey Schmitt has been a bright spot for San Francisco, batting .429 over the last week.

Despite the Diamondbacks being favored with a moneyline of -140, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Giants a slight edge with a 51% win probability. This discrepancy suggests potential value in betting on the Giants, especially considering Webb's ability to limit Arizona's strengths. With both teams featuring top-tier bullpens, this matchup promises to be a closely contested affair.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Given that groundball pitchers hold a sizeable advantage over groundball bats, Logan Webb and his 57.1% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a favorable spot in today's game squaring off against 2 opposing GB bats.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Mike Yastrzemski is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 74% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Matt Chapman hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 3rd-deepest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Brandon Pfaadt's sinker rate has risen by 12% from last season to this one (9.9% to 21.9%) .

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Ketel Marte has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 93.9-mph average to last season's 91.1-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected lineup for the Arizona Diamondbacks today holds an estimated true talent wOBA of .323, which is significantly worse than their actual wOBA of .335 this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 64 of their last 99 games (+29.40 Units / 27% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 64 away games (+8.85 Units / 13% ROI)
• Jake McCarthy has hit the Singles Over in 29 of his last 43 games (+10.90 Units / 19% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Final Score: San Francisco Giants 4.4 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 3.99

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