San Francisco Giants at Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction For 6/4/2024

San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: June 4, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Harrison - Giants
  • Blake Walston - D-Backs

Betting Odds

San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

In a National League West matchup, the San Francisco Giants will be facing off against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Chase Field on June 4, 2024. The Diamondbacks will be the home team for this game.

Both teams have been having a below-average season so far, with the Diamondbacks holding a record of 28-32 and the Giants at 29-32. This matchup could potentially be a close game, as indicated by the current moneyline odds.

The Diamondbacks are projected to start left-handed pitcher Blake Walston, who has started one game this year. Walston has been performing well with an ERA of 2.16, which is excellent. However, his xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could regress going forward. On average, Walston is projected to pitch 4.7 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs, striking out 3.9 batters, and allowing 5.2 hits and 1.5 walks per game.

The Giants, on the other hand, will likely start left-handed pitcher Kyle Harrison. Harrison has started 12 games this year and has a win-loss record of 4-2. His ERA of 4.15 is above average, but his xERA indicates that he may have been fortunate and could see some regression. Harrison is projected to pitch 4.9 innings, allowing 3.0 earned runs, striking out 4.4 batters, and giving up 5.4 hits and 1.9 walks per game.

In terms of offense, the Diamondbacks have been performing slightly better than the Giants this season. The Diamondbacks rank 12th in MLB in team offense, while the Giants rank 15th. The Diamondbacks have a slightly higher team batting average at 11th in the league, while the Giants rank 21st. However, the Giants rank higher in team home runs at 19th compared to the Diamondbacks at 21st. The Diamondbacks excel in stolen bases, ranking 3rd in the league, while the Giants rank 29th in that category.

Defensively, the Giants have an impressive bullpen, ranking as the best in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. In contrast, the Diamondbacks' bullpen ranks 21st. This could be a significant factor to consider in the late innings of the game.

Overall, this game presents an interesting matchup between two teams looking to improve their records. The Diamondbacks will rely on Blake Walston's strong pitching performance, while the Giants will count on Kyle Harrison to deliver a solid outing. With the Giants having the edge in bullpen performance, it could be a tight contest that may be decided in the later innings.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

The Arizona Diamondbacks have 8 hitters in the projected batting order that will hold the platoon advantage against Kyle Harrison in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Thairo Estrada has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (58% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The San Francisco Giants bullpen profiles as the best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Blake Walston was on point in his last outing and gave up 0 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

This year, there has been a decline in Corbin Carroll's footspeed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 30.05 ft/sec last year to 29.29 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

In today's matchup, Blaze Alexander is at a disadvantage facing the league's 3rd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 37% rate (92nd percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 21 games at home (+10.00 Units / 39% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 34 games (+5.40 Units / 14% ROI)
• Ketel Marte has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+9.00 Units / 31% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Final Score: San Francisco Giants 4.85 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 5.01

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