San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Pick & Preview – 4/14/2024

San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers Overview

• Date: April 14, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Yu Darvish - Padres
  • James Paxton - Dodgers
• Run Line: Padres 1.5 -150, Dodgers -1.5 125
• Money Line: Padres 135, Dodgers -160
• Total (Over/Under):9 -110

San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• San Diego Padres - 41%
• Los Angeles Dodgers - 59%

Projected Win %:

• San Diego Padres - 42.16%
• Los Angeles Dodgers - 57.84%

San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers Game Preview & Prediction

On April 14, 2024, the Los Angeles Dodgers will play host to the San Diego Padres at Dodger Stadium in a highly anticipated National League West matchup. The Dodgers, with a record of 10-6 this season, are having an outstanding campaign, while the Padres, with a record of 8-8, are performing at an average level.

The Dodgers will rely on left-handed pitcher James Paxton to start the game. Despite being ranked as the #123 best starting pitcher in MLB by our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Paxton's strong performance so far has resulted in a perfect 2-0 win/loss record and an excellent 1.64 ERA. However, his 4.79 xFIP suggests that his success may be influenced by luck.

The Padres, on the other hand, will send right-handed pitcher Yu Darvish to the mound. Darvish, ranked as the #59 best starting pitcher in MLB, has a good 3.86 ERA this season. However, his 4.78 xERA indicates that he may have been fortunate, and his 3.22 FIP suggests that he has been unlucky.

In terms of offensive production, the Dodgers have been impressive, ranking as the #3 best offense in MLB. They excel in team home runs, ranking #2 in the league. However, their team batting average and stolen bases rank in the middle of the pack. The Padres, with the #8 best offense, have shown strength in team home runs and stolen bases, while their batting average remains an area for improvement.

Based on the current odds, the Dodgers are the favorite with a moneyline of -160 and an implied win probability of 59%. This higher win probability, along with their consistent offensive performance, gives the Dodgers an advantage in this matchup.

While James Paxton's control issues may give the patient Padres offense an opportunity to draw walks, the overall strength of the Dodgers' team and the projected performance of their hitters provide a favorable outlook for the home team.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Out of every team today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense is that of the the San Diego Padres.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Hitting 2 HRs in the last week, Jurickson Profar has been on fire of late.

• Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.

Fernando Tatis Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 90th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 9th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

James Paxton has been given an above-average leash since the start of last season, tallying 5.4 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average hurler.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

James Outman is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the strong outfield defense of San Diego (#3-best of all teams on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have 4 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Chris Taylor, James Outman, Teoscar Hernandez, Max Muncy).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Padres vs Dodgers Prediction: Padres 4.6 - Dodgers 5.13

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