San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction & Picks 6/5/2024

San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Angels Details

• Date: June 5, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dylan Cease - Padres
  • Jose Soriano - Angels

Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

On June 5, 2024, the Los Angeles Angels will take on the San Diego Padres at Angel Stadium in an Interleague matchup. The Angels, with a disappointing record of 22-38 this season, are having a tough year, while the Padres hold an average record of 32-31. The game is the third in the series between these two teams.

The Angels are projected to start right-handed pitcher Jose Soriano, who has a record of 2-5 this season with a 3.86 ERA. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Soriano is ranked as the #64 best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating that he is above average. He is expected to pitch around 5.2 innings and allow an average of 2.3 earned runs, but his weakness lies in giving up hits and walks.

The Padres will counter with right-handed pitcher Dylan Cease, who has a record of 5-4 and an impressive 3.42 ERA this season. Our Power Rankings rank Cease as the #24 best starting pitcher in MLB, highlighting his greatness on the mound. He is projected to pitch around 5.8 innings, allowing an average of 2.4 earned runs, and striking out 6.8 batters. However, he tends to give up hits and walks, which could be exploited by the powerful Angels offense.

Speaking of offense, the Angels rank as the #19 best team in MLB this season, with an average team batting average and the third-most home runs. However, their stolen base ranking is quite low. On the other hand, the Padres rank as the #8 best team in MLB, with a good overall ranking and a strong stolen base ranking. Their batting average, however, is not as impressive.

In terms of bullpen strength, the Angels rank as the second-worst in MLB, while the Padres boast the seventh-best bullpen. This could give the Padres an advantage in the later innings of the game.

Considering the current odds, the Angels are the underdogs with a moneyline of +125, giving them an implied win probability of 43%. The Padres, as the betting favorites, have a moneyline of -150 and an implied win probability of 57%. The Game Total is set at 7.5 runs, indicating a low-scoring game.

With the Angels struggling this season and the Padres having an average performance, the Padres seem to have the edge in this matchup. However, the Angels' power hitting and the Padres' high-strikeout offense could create an interesting dynamic. It will be a game to watch as both teams battle it out on the field.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Dylan Cease's slider percentage has jumped by 8.7% from last season to this one (38.6% to 47.3%) .

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jurickson Profar's true offensive ability to be a .313, providing some evidence that he has experienced some positive variance this year given the .082 gap between that figure and his actual .395 wOBA.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Ha-seong Kim pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.8% — 85th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 10th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Jose Soriano's 97.3-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 100th percentile out of all starting pitchers.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Logan O'Hoppe's 15.3% Barrel% (a reliable stat to assess power) grades out in the 92nd percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Los Angeles Angels have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Kyren Paris, Jo Adell, Mickey Moniak).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 36 of their last 61 games (+10.20 Units / 14% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 15 of their last 22 away games (+9.70 Units / 34% ROI)
• Luis Rengifo has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 19 games at home (+10.70 Units / 49% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 4.69 vs Los Angeles Angels 3.87

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