San Diego Padres vs Houston Astros Pick – 4/20/2025

San Diego Padres vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

The San Diego Padres travel to Minute Maid Park to face the Houston Astros in a pivotal Interleague matchup on April 20, 2025. The Astros enter the game with an average record of 10-10, while the Padres are riding high at 15-6, reflecting their strong start to the season. In their last game against each other, the Astros secured a victory and will look for a third in a row here.

Astros' left-handed pitcher Framber Valdez, ranked as the 12th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, has had a challenging season so far with a 4.91 ERA, suggesting he has been somewhat unlucky. However, his xFIP of 3.16 indicates potential for improvement. Valdez projects to pitch 6.4 innings today, allowing about 2.2 earned runs, which bodes well for the Astros if their struggling offense can support him. The Astros rank 24th in MLB for runs scored, which certainly puts them at a disadvantage against a potent Padres lineup.

On the other hand, Padres' right-hander Dylan Cease has a less-than-ideal ERA of 6.64, but his 3.37 xFIP hints that he might also be due for a bounce-back. Cease's projected performance includes 5.7 innings pitched, allowing 2.6 earned runs, which could keep San Diego in contention, especially given their 4th ranked offense—led by a player with an impressive 1.094 OPS over the past week.

With the Astros' bullpen ranked 9th and the Padres' 4th, the late innings could prove decisive. As betting markets suggest a close contest, Houston's need for a strong showing may just give them the edge, especially as they aim to shake off their recent underperformance in batting. The low game total of 7.5 runs hints at a tight matchup, making this a crucial game for both teams.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Dylan Cease is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.2% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #10 HR venue in Major League Baseball in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Fernando Tatis Jr. has made notable gains with his Barrel%, upping his 14.6% rate last season to 20.3% this season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Oscar Gonzalez hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB's 9th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Framber Valdez has a large reverse platoon split and has the benefit of facing 7 opposite-handed batters in this game.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Jose Altuve's average exit velocity has dropped off this year; his 86.5-mph figure last season has decreased to 84.5-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

It may be smart to expect positive regression for the Houston Astros offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 4th-unluckiest offense in the league this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.20 Units / 21% ROI)
• Manny Machado has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+7.90 Units / 38% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Houston Astros Prediction

Predicted Final Score: San Diego Padres 3.55, Houston Astros 4.28

• Date: April 20, 2025
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Dylan Cease - Padres
  • Framber Valdez - Astros

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