San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies Pick & Prediction – 6/17/2024

San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies Details

• Date: June 17, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Randy Vasquez - Padres
  • Cristopher Sanchez - Phillies

Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

As the Philadelphia Phillies prepare to host the San Diego Padres on June 17, 2024, at Citizens Bank Park, this National League matchup paints an intriguing picture for both bettors and baseball fans. The Phillies, boasting an impressive 47-24 record, are having a great season and sit prominently in the playoff race. Conversely, the Padres, with a 37-38 record, are experiencing an average season and will look to claw their way back to relevance.

Cristopher Sanchez will take the mound for the Phillies. The left-hander has been a consistent force with a 3.07 ERA over 13 starts, ranking as the 31st best starting pitcher according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. Despite his solid stats, Sanchez's 3.82 xERA suggests some regression might be on the horizon. Sanchez is projected to pitch 5.5 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs, while striking out 3.6 batters. His control and ability to limit walks could be pivotal against a Padres lineup that ranks 1st in MLB in team batting average.

On the other side, Randy Vasquez will start for San Diego. Vasquez sports a 4.93 ERA, but his 4.29 xFIP indicates he has been somewhat unlucky. The right-hander is projected to pitch 4.8 innings, allowing 2.9 earned runs and striking out 3.7 batters. Despite Vasquez being one of the worst pitchers according to the advanced-stat Power Rankings, his ability to limit walks (4.1% BB rate) may mitigate one of Philadelphia's offensive strengths—they rank 3rd in drawing walks.

Offensively, the Phillies have the edge, ranking 5th in overall offense, 6th in team batting average and home runs, and 4th in stolen bases. Kyle Schwarber has been particularly hot, hitting .375 with a 1.298 OPS over the last week, providing a significant boost.

The Padres, while having the 7th best offense, boast the top team batting average in MLB. Jackson Merrill has shined recently with a .381 average and 1.409 OPS over the past week, including 4 home runs.

With a game total set at 9.5 runs and the Phillies as big favorites with a moneyline of -175, they're expected to score 5.35 runs while the Padres are projected at 4.15 runs. This matchup not only promises excitement but also offers substantial wagering opportunities.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

The San Diego Padres infield defense grades out as the strongest out of every team on the slate today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Ha-seong Kim pulls a lot of his flyballs (35% — 88th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Cristopher Sanchez is projected to record an average of 16.6 outs in today's game, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

When it comes to his batting average skill, Trea Turner is projected as the 16th-best hitter in the league by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

The Philadelphia Phillies projected batting order grades out as the 3rd-strongest of all teams today in terms of overall batting ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 39 of their last 56 games (+18.75 Units / 26% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 14 of their last 25 away games (+3.75 Units / 12% ROI)
• Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 27 games (+10.95 Units / 30% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 4.55 vs Philadelphia Phillies 5.37

Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.