San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies Best Bet – 6/18/2024

San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies Details

• Date: June 18, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Michael King - Padres
  • Aaron Nola - Phillies

Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres square off on June 18, 2024, at Citizens Bank Park in the second game of their series. The Phillies are having a fantastic season with a 48-24 record, boasting one of the top offenses in MLB, ranked 5th in overall talent. Their recent form reflects this strength, as they’ve accumulated impressive offensive metrics, including ranking 6th in batting average and 8th in home runs.

On the mound for the Phillies will be Aaron Nola, currently holding an 8-3 record with a 3.48 ERA over 14 starts. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Nola ranks as the 33rd best starting pitcher, indicating his solid performance this season. However, projections suggest he might struggle today, allowing an average of 5.9 hits and 2.9 earned runs over 5.9 innings, with a lower strikeout rate of 4.6 per game.

The Padres, with a 37-39 record, are having a more average season. Their offense, ranked 7th, leads MLB in team batting average and maintains respectable positions in home runs and stolen bases. However, they face the challenge of overcoming a strong Phillies bullpen, ranked 3rd in advanced-stat Power Rankings.

Michael King will start for the Padres. Despite being the 30th best starting pitcher, King’s 5-4 record and 3.58 ERA hint at some struggles. His 4.16 FIP suggests he’s been a bit lucky, and he’s projected to allow 5.2 hits and 2.1 walks over 5.2 innings today. King’s high 9.7% walk rate against the Phillies’ patient offense, which ranks 3rd in drawing walks, could be a pivotal factor.

Both teams’ bullpens are solid, with the Padres’ pen ranked 9th. The Phillies, buoyed by their stellar bullpen and powerful offense, enter this game as favorites with a -150 moneyline and implied win probability of 58%. The Padres have a +130 moneyline and a 42% implied win probability. The game total is set at 8.5 runs, suggesting a balanced offensive showdown.

The Phillies’ potent lineup, combined with Nola’s consistent performance and the Padres’ potential struggles on the mound, gives them a slight edge in what promises to be an exciting National League matchup.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

With 6 hitters of opposing handedness in the opposing team's projected batting order, Michael King will be at a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Jurickson Profar has been lucky this year, compiling a .399 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .314 — a .085 gap.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Ha-seong Kim pulls many of his flyballs (35% — 88th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Aaron Nola’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 outings (2298 rpm) has been a significant increase over than his seasonal rate (2239 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

Nick Castellanos has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (88% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Garrett Stubbs (the Phillies's expected catcher today) profiles as a horrible pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 29 games at home (+18.55 Units / 33% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Run Line in 20 of their last 34 away games (+6.95 Units / 16% ROI)
• Trea Turner has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+10.85 Units / 41% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 4.84 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.98

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.