San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers Pick For 9/24/2024

• Date: September 24, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Michael King - Padres
  • Landon Knack - Dodgers

Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres are set for an exciting National League West matchup on September 24, 2024, at Dodger Stadium. Both teams are having strong seasons, with the Dodgers holding a 93-63 record and the Padres not far behind at 90-66. This game carries significant weight as both teams are vying for playoff positioning, making this opener of their series crucial.

On the mound, the Dodgers will start Landon Knack, a right-hander who, despite a solid 3.39 ERA, ranks 179th among starting pitchers, suggesting he's been fortunate this season. His xFIP of 4.19 indicates potential regression. The Padres counter with Michael King, who boasts a stellar 3.04 ERA and ranks 17th among starters, highlighting his elite status. However, his SIERA of 3.59 suggests he, too, has had some luck on his side.

Offensively, the Dodgers sport the 2nd-best lineup in baseball, capable of explosive performances, ranking 2nd in home runs and 5th in batting average. Shohei Ohtani has been on a tear, hitting .571 with six homers over the past week. The Padres, meanwhile, have the 4th-best lineup, leading the league in batting average. Elias Diaz has been their standout recently, hitting .333 with a 1.389 OPS over the last seven games.

The Dodgers' bullpen ranks 7th, while the Padres' relief corps is 2nd, giving San Diego a slight edge in late-game scenarios. Betting markets see this as a toss-up, but the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, gives the Dodgers a slight 51% edge in win probability. With both teams projected to score over four runs, this matchup promises to be a high-scoring affair, making it a must-watch for fans and bettors alike.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Considering the 0.28 deviation between Michael King's 10.57 K/9 and his 10.28 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the luckiest pitchers in MLB this year when it comes to strikeouts and figures to negatively regress in future games.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Extreme flyball bats like Kyle Higashioka generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Landon Knack.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Jackson Merrill hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.4% — 100th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 9th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Landon Knack's 2448-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 90th percentile out of all starters.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Will Smith has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (90% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Today’s version of the Dodgers projected lineup is weaker than usual, as their .346 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .358 overall projected rate.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 53 games (+17.50 Units / 30% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 60 games (+15.85 Units / 18% ROI)
• Luis Arraez has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 20 games (+10.25 Units / 51% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 4.98 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 4.82

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