San Diego Padres at Cleveland Guardians Prediction For 7/21/2024

San Diego Padres vs Cleveland Guardians Details

• Date: July 21, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Michael King - Padres
  • Ben Lively - Guardians

Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

On July 21, 2024, the Cleveland Guardians and the San Diego Padres will face off in the third game of their interleague series at Progressive Field. With the Guardians boasting a 59-38 record and having a stellar season, the Padres sit at 51-50, reflecting an average performance thus far. This game could be pivotal for both teams as they navigate the second half of the season.

The Guardians will send right-hander Ben Lively to the mound, who, according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, ranks as the 255th best starting pitcher out of approximately 350. Lively's season has been a struggle, with projections indicating he'll pitch an average of 5.4 innings, allow 2.7 earned runs, and strike out 3.5 batters. His control issues are pronounced, as he's expected to allow 5.8 hits and 1.3 walks on average.

On the flip side, the Padres will counter with Michael King, a right-hander ranked 29th among MLB starting pitchers, marking him as one of the top arms in the league. King's projections are more favorable, with an expected 5.4 innings pitched, 2.6 earned runs allowed, and 4.7 strikeouts. However, he also struggles with control, projected to allow 5.3 hits and 1.7 walks.

Offensively, the Padres hold an edge with the 2nd best team batting average in MLB, indicating a potent lineup. They also rank 10th in home runs, showcasing good power. Meanwhile, the Guardians' offense is average in batting average (16th) but ranks similarly in power (10th in home runs) and speed (9th in stolen bases).

Given these dynamics, the betting markets have set both teams with a moneyline of -110, implying an evenly matched contest. The Guardians' projected win probability sits slightly above their implied probability, suggesting a potential edge for Cleveland. With both teams aiming to assert their dominance, this game promises to be a competitive showdown.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Michael King's 92.1-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a substantial 1.4-mph fall off from last season's 93.5-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

The Cleveland Guardians have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so David Peralta stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Jackson Merrill hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.6% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 7th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Compared to the average pitcher, Ben Lively has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an -5.4 fewer adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Steven Kwan's true offensive skill to be a .311, providing some evidence that he has been lucky this year given the .087 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .398 wOBA.

• Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the least strikeout-prone lineup in today's games is the Cleveland Guardians with a 17.2% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 56 of their last 92 games (+13.17 Units / 11% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 away games (+7.80 Units / 42% ROI)
• Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.80 Units / 55% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 4.62 vs Cleveland Guardians 4.26

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