Shane Baz MLB projections and prop bets for Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox on Sep 28, 2024
Shane Baz Player Prop Bet: Strikeouts
Strikeouts Prop Bet Odds:
- Strikeouts 5.5 over: -113
- Strikeouts 5.5 under: -113
Trends Favoring The Over Strikeouts Prop Bet
The Boston Red Sox have 5 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Trevor Story, Triston Casas, Tyler O'Neill, Connor Wong, Wilyer Abreu).
Bill Miller profiles as a Huge Pitchers Umpire and is anticipated to be calling pitches in this game.
Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes in MLB, which often leads to worse offense.
This game is expected to have the 3rd-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.
The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 3rd-strongest of the day for hurlers.
Trends Favoring The Under Strikeouts Prop Bet
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Shane Baz to throw 82 pitches in this game (14th-least of all pitchers on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
Playing on the road generally weakens pitcher metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Shane Baz today.
Projection For Shane Baz Strikeouts Prop Bet
Shane Baz is projected to have 4.9 Strikeouts in this weeks game.
Shane Baz Player Prop Bet: Earned Runs
Earned Runs Prop Bet Odds:
- Earned Runs 2.5 over: -111
- Earned Runs 2.5 under: -123
Trends Favoring The Over Earned Runs Prop Bet
The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 3rd-best stadium in baseball for BABIP.
Among all stadiums, Fenway Park's LF fences are the shallowest.
Playing on the road generally weakens pitcher metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Shane Baz today.
Shane Baz has been lucky this year, compiling a 3.07 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.42 — a 1.35 gap.
Shane Baz has recorded a .238 BABIP this year, a sign that he has been one of the luckiest mound aces in the league on balls in play and regression likely forthcoming.
Trends Favoring The Under Earned Runs Prop Bet
It may be wise to expect weaker performance for the Boston Red Sox offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 8th-luckiest offense in the game this year.
Bill Miller profiles as a Huge Pitchers Umpire and is anticipated to be calling pitches in this game.
Fenway Park has the 2nd-highest fence height (on average) in Major League Baseball.
This game is expected to have the 3rd-best weather for pitching among all the games scheduled today.
The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 3rd-strongest of the day for hurlers.
Projection For Shane Baz Earned Runs Prop Bet
Shane Baz is projected to have 2.4 Earned Runs in this weeks game.
