Seth Lugo MLB projections and prop bets for Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles on Oct 2, 2024
Seth Lugo Player Prop Bet: Strikeouts
Strikeouts Prop Bet Odds:
- Strikeouts 4.5 over: 128
- Strikeouts 4.5 under: -164
Trends Favoring The Over Strikeouts Prop Bet
The Baltimore Orioles (22.2 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 4th-least strikeout-prone team of batters on the slate.
Seth Lugo's fastball spin rate has risen 101 rpm this year (2368 rpm) over where it was last season (2267 rpm).
Given the 0.55 deviation between Seth Lugo's 7.88 K/9 and his 8.43 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the least fortunate pitchers in the league this year in terms of strikeouts and should see positive regression the rest of the season.
Trends Favoring The Under Strikeouts Prop Bet
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Seth Lugo to throw 81 pitches in today's matchup (4th-most of all pitchers today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
It is likely that we will see a Hitters Umpire (Ben May) in charge of the strike zone in today's game.
According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 2nd-most favorable for pitching of all games on the slate today.
The Baltimore Orioles have 6 hitters in the projected lineup that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Seth Lugo today.
Playing on the road typically diminishes pitcher metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Seth Lugo today.
Projection For Seth Lugo Strikeouts Prop Bet
Seth Lugo is projected to have 4.1 Strikeouts in this weeks game.
Seth Lugo Player Prop Bet: Earned Runs
Earned Runs Prop Bet Odds:
- Earned Runs 1.5 over: -160
- Earned Runs 1.5 under: 120
Trends Favoring The Over Earned Runs Prop Bet
The 2nd-best projected lineup of the day in terms of overall batting ability belongs to the Baltimore Orioles.
It is likely that we will see a Hitters Umpire (Ben May) in charge of the strike zone in today's game.
According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 2nd-most favorable for pitching of all games on the slate today.
The Baltimore Orioles have 6 hitters in the projected lineup that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Seth Lugo today.
Playing on the road typically diminishes pitcher metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Seth Lugo today.
Trends Favoring The Under Earned Runs Prop Bet
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT)'s estimation, Seth Lugo's overall pitching talent grades out in the 81st percentile among all SPs in the majors currently.
The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the worst ballpark in baseball for walks.
The deepest LF dimensions in Major League Baseball are found in Oriole Park at Camden Yards.
Oriole Park at Camden Yards has the 9th-highest fences in MLB.
The Kansas City Royals infield defense profiles as the best out of all the teams playing today.
Projection For Seth Lugo Earned Runs Prop Bet
Seth Lugo is projected to have 2.4 Earned Runs in this weeks game.
