Luis Severino Projections, Prop Bets & Odds

Strikeouts Prop Odds:

Strikeouts 4.5 over: 100

Strikeouts 4.5 under: -137

Trends Favoring The Over Strikeouts Prop

Luis Severino has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying 6.4 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average starter.

The New York Yankees have 4 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Trent Grisham, Aaron Judge, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Jasson Dominguez).

Yankee Stadium's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which often leads to worse offense.

Luis Severino has utilized his cut-fastball 9.3% more often this season (17.3%) than he did last year (8%).

Considering the 0.93 gap between Luis Severino's 6.08 K/9 and his 7.01 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the game this year in terms of strikeouts and ought to positively regress in the future.

Trends Favoring The Under Strikeouts Shots Prop

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Luis Severino in the 19th percentile as it relates to his strikeout skill.

Yankee Stadium profiles as the #21 field in Major League Baseball for strikeouts, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate today at 88°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).

The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this game, the 2nd-best of the day for bats.

Given that flyball pitchers struggle the most against groundball hitters, Luis Severino (43.1% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in today's game with 2 GB hitters in New York's projected offense.

Luis Severino is projected to have 4.2 Strikeouts in today's game.

Pitching Outs Prop Odds:

Pitching Outs 16.5 over: -125

Pitching Outs 16.5 under: -104

Trends Favoring The Over Pitching Outs Prop

Luis Severino has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying 6.4 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average starter.

It may be best to expect negative regression for the New York Yankees offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 7th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.

Yankee Stadium ranks as the #30 ballpark in the league for BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

In the league, Yankee Stadium's centerfield fences are the 6th-deepest.

Luis Severino is an extreme groundball pitcher (43.1% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Yankee Stadium — the #6 HR venue among all major league stadiums — in this game.

Trends Favoring The Under Pitching Outs Shots Prop

The 2nd-best projected offense of all teams on the slate in terms of overall hitting skill is that of the New York Yankees.

Yankee Stadium has the 9th-shortest fences in Major League Baseball.

The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate today at 88°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).

The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this game, the 2nd-best of the day for bats.

Given that flyball pitchers struggle the most against groundball hitters, Luis Severino (43.1% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in today's game with 2 GB hitters in New York's projected offense.

Luis Severino is projected to have 15.8 Pitching Outs in today's game.

Earned Runs Prop Odds:

Earned Runs 3.5 over: -105

Earned Runs 3.5 under: -125

Trends Favoring The Over Earned Runs Prop

The 2nd-best projected offense of all teams on the slate in terms of overall hitting skill is that of the New York Yankees.

Yankee Stadium has the 9th-shortest fences in Major League Baseball.

The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 4th-highest level of all games on the slate today at 88°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).

The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 8.1-mph in this game, the 2nd-best of the day for bats.

Given that flyball pitchers struggle the most against groundball hitters, Luis Severino (43.1% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in today's game with 2 GB hitters in New York's projected offense.

Trends Favoring The Under Earned Runs Shots Prop

It may be best to expect negative regression for the New York Yankees offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 7th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.

Yankee Stadium ranks as the #30 ballpark in the league for BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

In the league, Yankee Stadium's centerfield fences are the 6th-deepest.

Luis Severino is an extreme groundball pitcher (43.1% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Yankee Stadium — the #6 HR venue among all major league stadiums — in this game.

In his last outing, Luis Severino was on point and conceded 0 ER.

Luis Severino is projected to have 3.7 Earned Runs in today's game.