Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 8/13/2024

Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres Details

• Date: August 13, 2024
• Venue: Petco Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Ortiz - Pirates
  • Michael King - Padres

Betting Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

The San Diego Padres host the Pittsburgh Pirates in a pivotal National League matchup on August 13, 2024, following a 4-2 victory for the Padres yesterday that showcased their potent offense. With a solid record of 66-53, the Padres are having a strong season and currently sit in a favorable position for a playoff push. In contrast, the Pirates, at 56-61, find themselves struggling with a disappointing season.

Projected to start for the Padres is Michael King, who has been impressive this year, boasting a 3.34 ERA and ranking as the 26th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. King’s ability to strike out batters is a key asset, especially as he faces a Pirates offense that ranks 5th in MLB for strikeouts. Additionally, King is expected to pitch around 5.7 innings, allowing an average of just 2.1 earned runs while striking out 7.1 batters, which suggests he could dominate today.

On the other side, Luis Ortiz is slated to take the mound for the Pirates. His season has not been as fruitful, with an ERA of 3.40, but a concerning 4.68 xFIP indicates he may have been fortunate. Ortiz struggles with strikeouts, which could bode well for a Padres lineup that ranks 1st in MLB for the fewest strikeouts. Ortiz projects to pitch 5.0 innings, allowing an average of 2.9 earned runs, which doesn’t inspire much confidence given the Padres’ offensive prowess.

With the Padres currently favored with a moneyline of -200, they carry an implied team total of 4.64 runs for the game, suggesting strong expectations for their lineup. Meanwhile, the Pirates are underdogs at +170, with an implied total of just 3.36 runs. Given the disparity in pitching matchups and offensive rankings, San Diego appears well-equipped to continue their winning ways against Pittsburgh.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Luis Ortiz is projected to throw 84 pitches in today's outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 8th-least on the slate.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (21.1) suggests that Michael A. Taylor has had bad variance on his side this year with his 9.7 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Michael A. Taylor, Joey Bart, Oneil Cruz).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

With 6 hitters of the same handedness in the opposing team's projected offense, Michael King ought to benefit from having the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's outing.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

In the past two weeks' worth of games, Xander Bogaerts's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.4% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres' bullpen projects as the 3rd-best among all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 19 games (+12.10 Units / 43% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 44 of their last 75 games (+12.70 Units / 13% ROI)
• Jurickson Profar has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 29 games (+9.65 Units / 28% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 3.9 vs San Diego Padres 5.12

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