Pittsburgh Pirates vs Oakland Athletics Prediction and Odds – 4/30/2024

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Oakland Athletics Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: April 30, 2024
• Venue: Oakland Coliseum
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mitch Keller - Pirates
  • Alex Wood - Athletics
• Run Line: Pirates -1.5 130, Athletics 1.5 -150
• Money Line: Pirates -135, Athletics 115
• Total (Over/Under): 8

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Oakland Athletics Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Pittsburgh Pirates - 55%
• Oakland Athletics - 45%

Projected Win %:

• Pittsburgh Pirates - 54.13%
• Oakland Athletics - 45.87%

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Oakland Athletics Game Preview & Prediction

The Oakland Athletics will face off against the Pittsburgh Pirates in an Interleague matchup at Oakland Coliseum on April 30, 2024. The Athletics, who currently hold a record of 13-17 this season, are having a tough time, while the Pirates are slightly below average with a record of 14-16.

The Athletics are projected to start left-handed pitcher Alex Wood, who has had a challenging season so far. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Wood is ranked #259 out of approximately 350 pitchers in MLB, making him one of the worst in the league. In six starts this year, Wood has a win/loss record of 1-2 and an ERA of 6.59, which is considered horrible. However, his 5.10 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward.

On the other side, the Pirates are expected to start right-handed pitcher Mitch Keller. Keller has also had a rough season, with an ERA of 5.14. However, his 4.06 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky as well and could improve in future games.

In terms of offense, the Athletics rank as the #28 best team in MLB, while the Pirates rank #23. The Athletics have struggled with their batting average, ranking last in the league, but they excel in stolen bases, ranking fifth. The Pirates, on the other hand, have a slightly better batting average but rank low in home runs.

Based on the current odds, the Pirates are favored to win with an implied win probability of 55%, while the Athletics have an implied win probability of 45%. The game total is set at 8.0 runs, which is considered average.

Overall, both teams have had their struggles this season, but the Pirates seem to have a slight edge with their better bullpen and slightly stronger offense. However, with Wood's potential for improvement and the Athletics' ability to steal bases, this game could be a close one.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Compared to the average pitcher, Mitch Keller has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, recording an extra 5.6 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Andrew McCutchen has been hot recently, bashing 2 long-balls in the last 7 days.

• Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.

The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen grades out as the 6th-best in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

The Pittsburgh Pirates have 8 hitters in the projected batting order that will hold the platoon advantage against Alex Wood in today's game, which is especially troublesome given his large platoon split.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Noda in the 14th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

Today, Tyler Nevin is at a disadvantage facing the league's 10th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 38.5% rate (96th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Team Total Under in 67 of their last 118 games (+9.13 Units / 7% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 62 games (+12.80 Units / 19% ROI)
• Ke'Bryan Hayes has hit the RBIs Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+4.60 Units / 18% ROI)

Pirates vs Athletics Prediction: Pirates 4.47 - Athletics 3.89

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