Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 9/29/2024

• Date: September 29, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bailey Falter - Pirates
  • Clarke Schmidt - Yankees

Betting Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

As the New York Yankees prepare to host the Pittsburgh Pirates on September 29, 2024, Yankee Stadium will be the backdrop for this interleague matchup. The Yankees have enjoyed a stellar season, boasting a 93-68 record, which positions them as strong contenders. In contrast, the Pirates have struggled, compiling a 76-85 record that reflects a below-average season.

The pitching matchup features Clarke Schmidt for the Yankees and Bailey Falter for the Pirates. Schmidt, a right-hander, ranks as the 49th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. He sports an impressive 2.55 ERA, although his 3.77 xFIP suggests a degree of luck in his performance. Meanwhile, Falter, a lefty, has an average 4.26 ERA but is considered one of the league's weaker pitchers. His high-flyball tendencies could be problematic against the Yankees' powerful lineup, which leads MLB in home runs.

The Yankees' offense, ranking 3rd overall, has been a force to reckon with, supplemented by Aaron Judge's recent hot streak. Judge has been on fire over the past week, hitting .353 with four homers and seven RBIs. On the other side, the Pirates' offense ranks 28th, struggling to find consistency. Nick Gonzales has been a bright spot lately, batting .294 with two homers over his last five games.

The Yankees enter the game as significant favorites, with the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, giving them a 70% win probability, higher than the betting market's implied probability. With Schmidt's high strikeout rate facing a Pirates lineup prone to strikeouts, and Falter's flyball tendencies against a home run-heavy Yankees team, New York seems poised to capitalize on these matchups. The Yankees are looking to continue their momentum and solidify their position as playoff contenders, while the Pirates look to play spoiler in the final stretch of the season.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Bailey Falter has been given less leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 6.9 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Nick Gonzales is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 70% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Andrew McCutchen hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 81st percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league's 5th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Clarke Schmidt's cut-fastball utilization has risen by 7% from last season to this one (28.2% to 35.2%) .

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Giancarlo Stanton has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 98.3-mph average in the past 14 days to his seasonal 94.5-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Jose Trevino (the Yankees's expected catcher today) grades out as an elite pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 62 of their last 108 games (+15.15 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 73 away games (+8.50 Units / 11% ROI)
• Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+12.65 Units / 14% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees Prediction

Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 3.69 vs New York Yankees 5.34

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.