Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 7/10/2024

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers Details

• Date: July 10, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Martin Perez - Pirates
  • Tobias Myers - Brewers

Betting Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers are set to host the Pittsburgh Pirates on July 10, 2024, in the second game of their series at American Family Field. This National League Central matchup features two teams experiencing different seasons. The Brewers, with a strong 53-39 record, are having a great season, while the Pirates, at 44-47, are struggling to find consistency.

Milwaukee will send Tobias Myers to the mound. The right-hander has a 5-3 record with a solid 3.52 ERA over 12 starts this year. However, his 4.07 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat fortunate and could regress. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, anticipates Myers to pitch around 5.0 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs, striking out 5.2 batters, and issuing 1.3 walks on average.

On the other side, Martin Perez will start for Pittsburgh. The lefty has a 1-4 record with a 4.72 ERA over 13 starts. His 5.70 xERA indicates he's also been lucky and might face tougher outings ahead. Perez projects to pitch 5.1 innings, allowing 2.9 earned runs, striking out 3.7 batters, and giving up 2.0 walks on average.

Offensively, the Brewers hold a significant edge. Milwaukee's lineup is ranked as the 7th best in MLB, boasting the 4th highest team batting average and the 2nd most stolen bases. Meanwhile, the Pirates' offense ranks 27th overall, with a 24th place in team batting average and 22nd in stolen bases.

Christian Yelich has been red-hot for Milwaukee over the past week, hitting .350 with a staggering 1.400 OPS, including 3 home runs and 5 RBIs in 6 games. For Pittsburgh, Rowdy Tellez has been their standout hitter, posting a .391 average and 1.353 OPS with 4 home runs and 8 RBIs over 7 games.

With the Brewers as -155 favorites and an implied win probability of 59%, they are expected to come out on top. Their potent offense and solid pitching give them the upper hand against a Pirates team struggling to find ...

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Martin Perez is expected to record an average of 15.4 outs in this game.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

When it comes to his home runs, Nick Gonzales has experienced some negative variance this year. His 14.5 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been a fair amount lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 25.2.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have 5 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Nick Gonzales, Jack Suwinski, Jared Triolo, Joey Bart, Michael A. Taylor).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Given the 1.1 gap between Tobias Myers's 3.52 ERA and his 4.62 estimated true talent ERA (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), it's safe to say he's been one of the most fortunate pitchers in the game this year and figures to see negative regression in the future.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Brice Turang is projected to bat 9th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 52% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Milwaukee's 92.1-mph exit velocity on flyballs ranks them as the #10 squad in baseball this year by this metric.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 34 games at home (+11.50 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 46 of their last 75 games (+14.65 Units / 17% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+9.20 Units / 131% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.34 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.92

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.