Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers Prediction For 7/11/2024

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers Details

• Date: July 11, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Paul Skenes - Pirates
  • Aaron Civale - Brewers

Betting Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

The Milwaukee Brewers, currently enjoying a solid season with a 54-39 record, will host the Pittsburgh Pirates at American Family Field on July 11, 2024. This National League Central matchup will see the Brewers, who have the 8th-best offense in MLB, face the Pirates, who are having a below-average season at 44-48.

On the mound for Milwaukee will be Aaron Civale, a right-handed pitcher who has struggled this season with a 5.18 ERA and a 2-6 Win/Loss record over 18 starts. Although Civale's Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) of 4.13 suggests he's been unlucky, his peripherals indicate he might be due for a bounce-back. However, Civale has also projected to allow 4.9 hits and 1.5 walks on average, both of which are not promising signs against Pittsburgh’s lineup.

The Pirates will counter with their ace, Paul Skenes, who boasts an elite 2.12 ERA and an undefeated 5-0 record in 10 starts. Despite his excellent numbers, Skenes's Expected ERA (xERA) of 2.84 hints that he has been somewhat fortunate and could face regression. He projects well, with an average of 7.3 strikeouts per game, giving Pittsburgh a decisive edge on the mound.

The Brewers have been led by Christian Yelich, who has been red-hot over the past week, batting .350 with a 1.200 OPS, 2 home runs, and 2 stolen bases. Meanwhile, Oneil Cruz has been the standout for the Pirates, hitting .375 with a 1.194 OPS and 2 home runs over his last five games.

While the Brewers have a potent offense ranking 4th in team batting average and 2nd in stolen bases, they may struggle to draw walks against Skenes, who has a low 5.2 BB% this year. This could neutralize one of Milwaukee's strengths, as they are 3rd in drawing walks this season.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, sees this as a close contest, giving the Pirates a slight edge with a 53% win probability compared to the Brewers' 47%. The betting markets also reflect this tight matchup, with Milwaukee’s moneyline at +110 and Pittsburgh's at -130. Given the Pirates' edge on the mound and Milwaukee's difficulty in drawing walks against Skenes, Pittsburgh might just have the upper hand in this crucial divisional game. ― ...

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Paul Skenes's 98.5-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 100th percentile out of all SPs.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Ke'Bryan Hayes has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (80% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Oneil Cruz, Nick Gonzales, Jack Suwinski).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Aaron Civale is expected to average a total of 5.7 strikeouts in today's game.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Christian Yelich has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.6-mph to 98.7-mph in the past week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Milwaukee Brewers bats as a unit place 24th- in Major League Baseball for power this year when judging by their 7.2% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 28 games at home (+11.45 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 50 of their last 82 games (+14.65 Units / 16% ROI)
• Bryan Reynolds has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 35 games (+11.75 Units / 28% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.41 vs Milwaukee Brewers 3.85

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.