Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Sox Prediction For 7/13/2024

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago White Sox Details

• Date: July 13, 2024
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Luis Ortiz - Pirates
  • Chris Flexen - White Sox

Betting Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

The Chicago White Sox are set to host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Guaranteed Rate Field on July 13, 2024, in what is the second game of their interleague series. The White Sox, struggling through a dismal season with a 27-69 record, will look to turn things around against the Pirates, who sit at a more respectable 46-48, though still hovering around average.

The White Sox will send Chris Flexen to the mound. Flexen, who has had a rough year, is currently ranked as the #290 starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. His 2-7 record and 4.95 ERA underscore his struggles. Flexen projects to pitch 5.2 innings on average while allowing 2.9 earned runs, striking out 4.5 batters, and giving up 5.3 hits and 1.6 walks per outing. He faces a Pirates offense that ranks 28th in MLB, which could provide some hope for Flexen to deliver a decent outing. Notably, the Pirates strike out a lot, ranking 5th in strikeouts, which may play into Flexen's hand.

On the flip side, the Pirates will counter with Luis Ortiz, who, despite his excellent 2.95 ERA, has been fortunate this season. His 4.26 xFIP suggests he may regress. Ortiz has a 4-2 record and is also expected to pitch 5.2 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs, striking out 3.9 batters, and giving up 5.2 hits and 1.4 walks on average. The White Sox offense, which ranks 29th in team batting average and 26th in home runs, may struggle to capitalize on Ortiz’s flyball tendencies.

Both teams' offenses have been underwhelming this season, with the White Sox ranking 29th and the Pirates 28th overall. The White Sox's bullpen, ranked 30th, also poses a significant liability, while the Pirates boast the 6th best bullpen, which could be a decisive factor late in the game.

The game total is set at 9.0 runs, indicating expectations for a higher-scoring affair. The Pirates are favored with a moneyline of -150, implying a 58% win probability, while the White Sox are underdogs at +130, with a 42% implied win probability. Given these factors, the Pirates' balanced edge in pitching and bullpen depth might be the key to their projected victory.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Luis Ortiz has been given less leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 9.8 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Oneil Cruz has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 95.4-mph to 99.3-mph in the last two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates' bullpen ranks as the 6th-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Chris Flexen has used his off-speed and breaking pitches 7.3% more often this season (61.8%) than he did last year (54.5%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.299) implies that Lenyn Sosa has suffered from bad luck this year with his .246 actual batting average.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Lenyn Sosa has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.7%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 29 games (+6.75 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 44 of their last 74 games (+11.20 Units / 13% ROI)
• Ke'Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.20 Units / 48% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 5.12 vs Chicago White Sox 4.22

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