Pittsburgh Pirates at Atlanta Braves Best Bet – 6/30/2024

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves Details

• Date: June 30, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bailey Falter - Pirates
  • Spencer Schwellenbach - Braves

Betting Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

As the Atlanta Braves prepare to host the Pittsburgh Pirates on June 30, 2024, at Truist Park, we find ourselves looking at two teams on different trajectories this season. The Braves, with a 46-35 record, are having a solid season. Meanwhile, the Pirates, at 39-43, are struggling to stay afloat.

Spencer Schwellenbach will take the mound for the Braves. While his 5.40 ERA this season suggests he's had his struggles, his 3.76 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and could perform better moving forward. Despite a 1-3 Win/Loss record across 5 starts, Schwellenbach's underlying metrics make him an intriguing pitcher to watch. On the other side, Bailey Falter will start for the Pirates. Falter has a 4.00 ERA but a 4.59 xFIP, suggesting he's been fortunate thus far. With a 3-6 Win/Loss record over 15 starts, he hasn't exactly been a model of consistency.

The Braves' offense, ranked 13th in MLB, looks to capitalize on Falter's vulnerabilities. While they rank 16th in batting average and 14th in home runs, their struggles on the basepaths (27th in stolen bases) could limit their scoring opportunities. The Pirates' offense, however, has been one of the worst in the league, ranking 28th overall and 24th in both batting average and home runs.

In their recent games, the Braves have been buoyed by Jarred Kelenic, who over the last 7 games has posted a .385 batting average and a 1.164 OPS, adding 3 home runs and 7 RBIs. In contrast, the Pirates' Connor Joe has been a bright spot, hitting .500 with a 1.386 OPS over his last 5 games.

The Braves' bullpen, ranked 7th in MLB, should provide a solid backstop against a Pirates lineup that struggles to generate offense. Meanwhile, the Pirates' bullpen, sitting at 19th, leaves much to be desired.

With a game total set at 9.0 runs, expect this matchup to see some scoring, particularly from the Braves, who have a projected team total of 5.09 runs. As significant favorites with a moneyline of -175, the Braves have an implied win probability of 62%, making them the safer bet to come out on top in this National League showdown.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Bailey Falter has gone to his off-speed and breaking balls 13.5% less often this season (33.7%) than he did last season (47.2%).

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (33.4) provides evidence that Oneil Cruz has had bad variance on his side this year with his 22.1 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Rowdy Tellez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.8% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 5th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Out of all SPs, Spencer Schwellenbach's fastball velocity of 95.2 mph ranks in the 90th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Jarred Kelenic is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 77% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Atlanta Braves have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Ramon Laureano, Adam Duvall, Jarred Kelenic).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 49 of their last 77 games (+20.50 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 49 of their last 79 games (+15.35 Units / 17% ROI)
• Orlando Arcia has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 23 games at home (+11.65 Units / 51% ROI)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final Score: Pittsburgh Pirates 4.47 vs Atlanta Braves 5.87

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