Philadelphia Phillies vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction – 5/6/2025

On May 6, 2025, the Tampa Bay Rays will host the Philadelphia Phillies at George M. Steinbrenner Field for the first game of their interleague series. Both teams are looking to build momentum, with the Rays stumbling to a 16-18 record this season, while the Phillies stand at a solid 19-15. The Rays are currently ranked 19th in offense according to advanced stats, indicating they face an uphill battle against a competitive Phillies lineup that ranks 9th overall.

Tampa Bay's Drew Rasmussen, ranked 17th among starting pitchers, takes the mound with an impressive 2.64 ERA, although his 3.18 xFIP suggests he might be due for some regression. Rasmussen has been effective so far but has struggled with his strikeout numbers, averaging just 4.9 strikeouts per game. His low walk rate might give him an edge against a Phillies offense that leads the league in walks.

Opposing him will be Zack Wheeler, an elite pitcher who ranks 4th in MLB and brings a solid 3.48 ERA into the matchup. Wheeler projects to pitch 6.1 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs, and striking out 6.5 batters, which could pose a significant challenge for the Rays' struggling offense.

Betting markets currently favor the Phillies slightly, setting their moneyline at -120, while the Rays sit at +100. With an average game total of 8.0 runs, this matchup is poised to be competitive. However, the projections suggest that the Rays may have a better chance than the odds reflect, particularly given their strengths in the pitching department.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Zack Wheeler projects as the 9th-best starting pitcher in the game currently as it relates to his strikeout ability, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Max Kepler has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 100.2-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 90.6-mph average.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The 3rd-best projected offense of the day in terms of overall batting skill is that of the Philadelphia Phillies.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Drew Rasmussen has compiled a 4.6 K/BB rate since the start of last season, ranking in the 90th percentile.

• K/BB rate is one of the best measures of a pitcher's effectiveness in a given season, regardless of his ERA (which is prone to extreme randomness and luck).

Danny Jansen is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Philadelphia (#2-worst on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

The 7.7% Barrel% of the Tampa Bay Rays grades them out as the #22 group of hitters in the league this year by this standard.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.35 Units / 31% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.90 Units / 35% ROI)
• Alec Bohm has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 20 away games (+6.85 Units / 23% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 4.82, Tampa Bay Rays 4.15

• Date: May 6, 2025
• Venue: George M. Steinbrenner Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zack Wheeler - Phillies
  • Drew Rasmussen - Rays

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