Philadelphia Phillies vs San Francisco Giants Prediction & Picks – 5/29/2024

Philadelphia Phillies vs San Francisco Giants Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 29, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cristopher Sanchez - Phillies
  • Kyle Harrison - Giants

Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

The San Francisco Giants are set to face off against the Philadelphia Phillies on May 29, 2024, at Oracle Park. As the home team, the Giants will look to continue their above-average season, with a current record of 29-27. Meanwhile, the Phillies are having a great season, boasting a record of 38-18.

The Giants are projected to start left-handed pitcher Kyle Harrison, who has been ranked as the #163 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Despite his ranking, Harrison has managed a 4-1 win/loss record this year, with an ERA of 3.90. However, his 4.41 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky so far and could perform worse going forward.

On the other side, the Phillies are projected to start left-handed pitcher Cristopher Sanchez, who has been ranked as the #56 best starting pitcher in MLB. Sanchez has a 2-3 win/loss record this year, with an impressive ERA of 3.15. However, his 3.89 xERA indicates that he may have been lucky, and he could perform worse in the future. Additionally, his 2.61 FIP suggests that he has been unlucky and could perform better going forward.

The Giants are coming off a recent victory against the Phillies, winning their last game by a score of 1-0. Despite being underdogs in that game, with a closing Moneyline price of +165, they managed to secure the win. The Phillies, on the other hand, were favored to win with a closing Moneyline price of -190.

In terms of offense, the Giants rank 12th in MLB this season, while the Phillies rank 3rd. The Giants struggle in team batting average (ranked 21st) and stolen bases (ranked 29th), but their home run ranking is average (19th). The Phillies, on the other hand, have a strong offense, ranking 8th in team batting average and 10th in stolen bases.

Based on the current odds, the Giants have an implied win probability of 46%, while the Phillies have an implied win probability of 54%. However, THE BAT X projects the Giants to have a 52% win probability, suggesting there may be value betting on the Giants.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Because flyball batters hold a big advantage over groundball pitchers, Cristopher Sanchez and his 54.3% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a hard spot in this game matching up with 1 opposing GB batters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen grades out as the 7th-best in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

The Philadelphia Phillies have 6 bats in the projected batting order that will hold the platoon advantage against Kyle Harrison in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Extreme flyball bats like Wilmer Flores tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Cristopher Sanchez.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Marco Luciano has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.6%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's 2nd-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 15 of their last 22 games at home (+10.90 Units / 35% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 35 of their last 49 games (+19.10 Units / 32% ROI)
• Bryce Harper has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 21 games (+9.55 Units / 45% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 4.32 vs San Francisco Giants 4.07

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